Terminal Evaluation: Addressing the Risks of Climate Induced Disasters through Enhanced National and Local Capacity for Effective Actions

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Evaluation Plan:
2014-2018, Bhutan
Evaluation Type:
Final Project
Planned End Date:
02/2019
Completion Date:
03/2019
Status:
Completed
Management Response:
Yes
Evaluation Budget(US $):
35,000

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Title Terminal Evaluation: Addressing the Risks of Climate Induced Disasters through Enhanced National and Local Capacity for Effective Actions
Atlas Project Number: 00076998
Evaluation Plan: 2014-2018, Bhutan
Evaluation Type: Final Project
Status: Completed
Completion Date: 03/2019
Planned End Date: 02/2019
Management Response: Yes
Focus Area:
  • 1. Others
Corporate Outcome and Output (UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021)
  • 1. Output 1.1.1 Capacities developed across the whole of government to integrate the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and other international agreements in development plans and budgets, and to analyse progress towards the SDGs, using innovative and data-driven solutions
  • 2. Output 1.1.2 Marginalised groups, particularly the poor, women, people with disabilities and displaced are empowered to gain universal access to basic services and financial and non-financial assets to build productive capacities and benefit from sustainable livelihoods and jobs
  • 3. Output 1.2.1 Capacities at national and sub-national levels strengthened to promote inclusive local economic development and deliver basic services including HIV and related services
SDG Goal
  • Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere
  • Goal 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
  • Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
SDG Target
  • 1.5 By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters
  • 11.5 By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations
  • 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries
Evaluation Budget(US $): 35,000
Source of Funding: GEF
Evaluation Expenditure(US $): 27,379
Joint Programme: No
Joint Evaluation: No
Evaluation Team members:
Name Title Nationality
John Vong International Consultant
Yeshi Dorji National Consultant
GEF Evaluation: Yes
GEF Project Title: Addressing the risk of climate-induced disasters through enhanced national and local capacity for effective actions
Evaluation Type: Terminal Evaluation
Focal Area: Climate Change
Project Type: FSP
GEF Phase: GEF-5
GEF Project ID: 4976
PIMS Number: 4760
Key Stakeholders: National Environment Commission
Countries: BHUTAN
Comments:

Planned End date has been moved to end of February 2019 as the final report completion and management response is likely to take longer than expected.

Lessons
1.

Lessons learnt from the good practice observed for the Project have been consolidated into 7 key lessons as follows:

Lesson 1: Sustainability and Replication of Good Practices - Replication of Successful DM Activities

 Going forward, there should be a singular focus on sharing and replicating successful DM activities across Bhutan so as to drive DM efforts as a whole to be more productive and effective. For example, the water filtration done by Tarayana is worthy of publication and replication.

Lesson 2: Activity Based Capacity Development for Sustained Knowledge

To ensure there is a consistent and effective capacity development, there is a need for Activity Based Capacity Development (ABCD) which is taken to mean:

The Project is designed with capacity development, and

The Project activities must be carried out with on-the-job training all through, not a generic and piece meal approach to training.

The project has many examples of successful ABCD over the course of its implementation, namely:

Outcome 1, Phuntsholing Thromde, Omchu River, Flood Protection: Almost 70% of municipal office have been strengthened through capacity building training in areas including flood protection and slope stabilization. Capacity building ex-trainings were attended in Philippines and Japan, and in-country trainings were provided through resource persons from Nepal and India.

Output 1.1, Activity 1.1.6, FEMD and Phuentsholing Municipality, Capacity Strengthening Support: Provided technical backstopping to the flood protection in the field in terms of review of technical reports and design of flood protection systems, with engineers trained on flood protection and mitigation. Also, field visits were arranged to Indonesia and Bangkok, with the skills gained from trainings replicated to other Dzongkhag engineers

Output 2.1, Mongar, Climate-resilient water harvesting, storage and distribution systems:

Staff were sent for capacity building training in Philippines and brought back new knowledge to be shared, including how to implement water pumps (submersible and centrifugal) in distribution system

Activity 2.3.3, DES, Windstorm Resilient Roofing System: Capacity building of 12 Engineers of Department of Engineering Services on “Methods of Research for Effective Disaster Risk Reduction” at ADPC, Bangkok

Output 3.3, PMU: Capacity of 57 male staff and 32 female staff have been enhanced on climate change- adaptation and vulnerability assessments, GIS, Project management etc

In these examples, capacity development activities were carried out through on-the-job training directly relevant to the targeted output and outcome results. This is a key positive benchmark that should be replicated and applied in future projects in Bhutan.

Lesson 3: Systematic Knowledge Application – Training Curriculum, Methodology and Assessments

The end result of every capacity development activity must be recorded. There would be documentary records of the training objective, training methodology, manuals and guidelines, and assessment of competency at differing levels.  These will contribute to the technical development of skills, knowledge, systems and process equipment necessary to implement DM at the local levels in Bhutan. If necessary, in most vocational training, there is a key pillar – to change the attitude, behaviour and commitment towards work – to ensure long term sustainability of knowledge acquired.

Lesson 4: Data and Information - Needs-Driven Monitoring, Sharing and Analytics

The Project has started continuous collection of weather data. The weather forecasting has improved markedly. There is a need now to use the data to forecast other climate-induced risks, such as landslides, forest fire, pest attacks, and human activity in the identified hot spots. This data will be very important especially for Bhutan which is quickening its development. Data needs to be shared with and analysed by agencies that have a responsibility to manage DM. Even though the data may be imperfect as with most data scientists will know the process of data “cleaning” and validation. So, the department that owns the data should allow other agencies and external data scientists to use the data for disaster prevention and management. Specifically, there is a need to validate the ArcSWAT model and to assess what has been done in Chukha from the available reports. In addition, there is a need for geotechnical studies to be carried out, particularly for the landslide areas around Phuentsholing and Pasakha Industrial Area.

Lesson 5: DM Equipment, Hardware Procurement, Funding for Maintenance, Replacement There is a need for funding plans to be put in place for both maintenance of existing hardware as well as replacement of damaged equipment, for example, weather stations and galvanized iron mesh used in gabion walls. With regards to existing equipment, there are concerns over the decision to use wrought iron casing versus stainless steel casing for submersible pumps in the storage tanks at municipal level. There is a need to evaluate the sturdiness and durability of these pumps going forward, as well as the expenses to be incurred in terms of maintenance and replacement. For procurement contracts, it is recommended that clauses be inserted to include maintenance based on TCO.

Lesson 6: Communication with Impact

This successful practice can be communicated via publication of Bhutan’s best DM practices in high impact international academic journals, such as those under the Springer Group, Inderscience and IEEE. The publication serves to communicate to a wider world, thereby attracting funding from non-traditional development partners of climatic finance.

Lesson 7: Inter-border and Regional Cooperation

It is worthy of consideration to collaborate with its immediate neighbouring countries as well as other ASEAN countries in the area of DM activities. This is a practice commonly used by UNDP, which has been found to be an excellent platform for DM best practices to be shared, learnt and replicated from successful cases in other countries. For instance, government officials from Timor-Leste visited Bangladesh and Lao in 2016 to share information adoption and adaptation of best practices.


Findings
1.

3.0 Findings

The NAPA II project is a large donor programme working with the RGoB to achieve local level, climate-induced disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The programme has generated outputs that are likely to contribute in achieving its impact statement of enhancing the ability of the poorest and most vulnerable people to adapt to the impact of climate and climateinduced disasters. The achievement of the programme is related to the high level of ownership of the government systems – especially from the NEC Secretariat. It has showcased an effective model to operationalize local level climate change-induced disaster risk reduction and management processes using a blended approach led by the government systems of Dzongkhag and Thromde level and community institutions promoted by NGOs and Gewog and local levels. The programme achieved the use of participatory approaches in programme planning and management. The design and implementation of climate change adaptation activities could be strengthened, with a more strategic approach to urban resilience, better convergence and increased capacities at provincial/Dzongkhag level. Monitoring and learning processes could be improved. Even so, the NAPA II project can offer a great deal of cutting-edge learning for the adaptation and disaster management communities within South Asia and around the world. The key findings are grouped under the four broad headings of project strategy, progress towards goals, implementation and management and overall sustainability. 

3.1 Project Design / Formulation

3.1.1 Analysis of LFA/Results Framework (Project logic /Strategy and Indicators)

In reviewing the effectiveness and efficiency of the programme in meeting its objectives and outcomes, the evaluation assessment reviewed the CPAP outcomes of Bhutan, outcome indicators, and the primary applicable key environment and sustainable development key result areas (KRAs). The evaluation assessment also addressed the project strategy, indicators, baseline, end of project target, source of verification and risk and assumptions. The final conclusion is that the LFA design has taken careful consideration of the CPAP outcomes and was aligned to the key environment and sustainable development KRAs. Furthermore, it is found that the LFA was prepared with indepth thinking, accurately described end of project goals, listed the sources of verification, and correctly identified the risks and the assumptions. The Results Based Framework (RBF) indicators were clearly described with the source of verification and end of project targets. There were 14 indicators in total, two at the outcome level, two mapped to project objectives, and the remaining indicators reflected against outputs and activities. 


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Vulnerable Effectiveness Relevance Knowledge management Ownership Policies & Procedures Programme/Project Design Results-Based Management Risk Management Theory of Change SDG Integration

2.

3.1.2 Risks and Assumptions

The Risks and Assumptions were identified correctly and foreseen in the LFA right from the project design. However, the risk mitigation measures were mentioned separately in a different annex. It is recommended that risk mitigation measures should be mentioned together with risks identified, not separately. The risks and assumptions are listed by project objective and outcomes as shown below.

Project Objective: To enhance national, local and community capacity to prepare for and respond to climate-induced multi hazards to reduce potential losses of human lives, national economic infrastructure, livelihoods, and livelihood assets. Risks - Difficulty in coordinating various outcomes and outputs by different agencies leading to silo approach; - Complex technical and organizational management of the processes and results. Assumptions - Government funding is available to sustain and consolidate the interventions after the conclusion of the project. 

Project Outcome 1: Risks from climate-induced floods and landslides reduced in Bhutan’s economic and industrial hub, Phuentsholing and Pasakha Industrial Area. Risks - Flood risk mitigation and slope stabilization measures may have a long gestation period and does not show visible results at end of project; -Widespread geological activity fragility in the area and extreme rainfall events may trigger flood and landslides at locations not envisaged in the project; - Theft and vandalism of materials used for slope stabilization structures (for example, galvanized iron mesh used in gabion walls) by vandals, especially given the proximity contiguity of the landslide areas to the porous international borders. 

Project Outcome 2: Community resilience to climate-induced disaster risks (droughts, floods, landslides, windstorms, forest fires) strengthened in at least four Dzongkhags. Risks - Limited in-country experience and knowhow of climate resilient water harvesting technology may lead to inappropriate technology choices; - Local administration accords low priority in establishing and strengthening local institutions for disaster management because of heavy existing workload. Assumptions - Local government and administration have adequate capacity to build upon flood disaster management.

Project Outcome 3: Relevant information about climate-related risks and threats shared across development sectors for planning and preparedness on a timely basis. Risks - Compatibility of different elements (equipment) of the hydromet network and NWFWC; - Support from JICA changed delayed or cancelled; - Sectors unwilling to integrate climate risks into policies and activity designs because of more challenging complexity and likelihood of a higher budget requirements and thus in short term perceived less benefits. Assumptions - In-country capacity is available or built from operation and maintenance of hardware; - Spare parts for replacement are readily available in the event of damage or dis-repair.


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Partnership Risk Management Country Government International Financial Institutions Private Sector Capacity Building

3.

3.1.5 Replication approach

Replication and up-scaling are fundamental objectives of the GEF Programme as it provides the opportunity to build on best practices and lessons learned and expand the reach and impact of its grant making portfolio.3The report further alluded that many voluntary and multi-sectoral National Steering Committees (NSC) of SGP in each country play a fundamental role in contributing to upscale and replicate the best practices identified in the portfolio. As such, UNDP, government agencies and private sector and a majority of civil society organizations, have many opportunities to support the replication and up scaling of the most successful projects and practices through their networks and contacts. The Pacific IWRM states that replication is the activity of copying the specific features of a water resource or wastewater management approach that made it successful in one setting and reapplying these as part of an Integrated Water Resource Management process in the same or another setting. Furthermore, the concepts of replication, scaling-up, and mainstreaming are being increasingly promoted as important elements of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) by donors, governments, and non-governmental and community organisations.

For the NAPA II project, this may help integration and replication for scaling up the project impacts. For example, the community water harvesting and storage model under Outputs 2.1.5 – 2.1.10 have emerged as a replicable model that combines risk reduction, and water harvesting with community institutions for DM and livelihoods support. Outputs 3.1 and Output 1.2 can produce greater impact by way of integrating flood plain buffering with AWLS sensor installation through replication and or scaling up. Lastly, capacity building and mock-drills can be mainstreamed into villages and communities along the Mongar or Pasakha river (PIA) for greater benefit.


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Energy Effectiveness Sustainability Integration Strategic Positioning

4.

3.1.7 Linkages between Project and Interventions within the Sector The Project was designed to build upon the foundations, experience and good practice from past initiatives and to seek collaboration where possible with ongoing and or new initiatives for joint learning and development of capacity for effective response to climate-induced disasters and disaster risks at national and local levels. The listings of the relevant projects are tabled below.

3.1.8 Management Arrangements

Project Board (PB): The Project Board (PB) was established to provide high-level oversight and to steer the project. The PB is chaired by the Government Secretary of the NEC and made up of senior representatives from all key national implementing agencies, UNDP and other key partner agencies. The PB is responsible for high-level management decisions and policy guidance required for implementation of the project, including recommendations and approval of project plans, budget and revisions. The PB decisions are made in accordance to standards that ensure efficiency, cost effectiveness, transparency, effective institutional coordination, and harmony with overall development policies and priorities of the Royal Government of Bhutan, UNDP and their development partners. The PB was constituted and meets regularly. The meeting minutes for all meetings made available showed that the PB has effectively provided important directions and oversight. In addition, the PB was also successful in advising the team on technical aspects of implementation especially procurement and prioritization of interventions keeping project cost considerations in view. 


Tag: Oversight Programme Synergy Project and Programme management Country Government Coordination

5.

3.2 Project Implementation

3.2.1 Adaptive management (changes to the project design and project outputs during implementation)

Early on, there were delays at the start of the project due to the bureaucratic process, where different financial year accounting for UNDP and RGoB affected the incorporation and release of budgeted funds for project activities. In addition, multi-stage approvals for project activities were required for DGM, NECGNHC and UNDP. The back-and-forth nature of these administrative processes meant that more time was required for project activities to be green lit for implementation. In addition, delays were experienced in the procurement of resources and equipment for output activities pertaining to landslide stabilization. As a result, the project implementation was pushed back to accommodate the delayed start, with the First Project Board Meeting held on 11 June 2014, followed by the Project Inception Workshop on 12 June 2014. The original planned closing date of 17 March 2018 was also pushed back five months to 01 October 2018. Subsequently, the PMU had to reschedule the timelines for activities in order to accomplish the project objectives and outcomes, with activities starting in 2014. Examples of adaptive management taken by the PMU are:

- Adaptive Management in Planning: Gewog (Thromde) a) Engaging key stakeholders in decision making process including line departments, local expert institutions such as College for Science and Technology (CST) and local monastery;b) Identifying problem to be addressed and specifying objectives and tradeoffs that capture values for stakeholders –included evaluating various options for slope stabilization and gully plugs in different locations; c) Identifying range of decision alternatives (soil nailing, gabion structures, check dams) from which actions are to be selected; d) Projecting consequences of alternative actions, identifying key uncertainties and risks; e) Accounting for future impacts of present decisions. 

- Adaptive Management in Community Action: Khengkhar a) Tarayana Foundation mobilized village communities by way of extensive consultation using a participatory approach (Output 2.2). The approach helped evaluate the problems systematically and explore options and choices. The communities decided to protect sources and use a network of water harvesting structures with traditional filters tapping the gravitational flow. b) Source protection, along with plantations in the region are expected to reduce sedimentation and preserve water quality. Watershed protection and management through fencing (15 acres) and plantations were carried out in all water sources. This is also seen as a risk mitigation mechanism for reduced water availability in winter and offseason months. c) With the success in water access and watershed management, there is increasing demand from neighboring villages for scaling up of the project given the current water shortage issues and similar pre-project status in Jurmey (320 households with a need for 4 water reservoirs) and Pimphu (19 households with needs for pipelines to complement the existing pumps and reservoirs). Around 200 households surrounding Morong have also voiced for need of similar project initiatives.

Despite the changes, the project was implemented efficiently within timeline and, in one instance, ahead of schedule. This reflects well on the PMU’s adaptive management in handling time delays. In addition, there were changes required due to additional demand for drinking water supply and handing over of projects; the budgets for these were revised accordingly. 


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Vulnerable Partnership Project and Programme management Results-Based Management

6.

3.2.3 Feedback from M&E activities used for adaptive management

Specific adaptive management measures taken in response to recommendations from MTR include: see table in the report

A lack of data on the needs of Dzongkhags, Gewogs and Chiwogs meant that project design and planning decisions were made at the central government level. Future projects should incorporate data-based needs for the local levels.


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Environmental impact assessment Efficiency Global Environment Facility fund Donor relations Monitoring and Evaluation Country Government International Financial Institutions Civil Societies and NGOs

7.

3.2.5 Monitoring and evaluation

The monitoring and evaluation framework consisted of local monitoring and reporting as well as international independent evaluations. Both PMU and UNDP-GEF team were responsible for the preparation and submission of the following reports and evaluations: Inception Report; Annual Project Report (APR); Project Implementation Review (PIR); Quarterly Progress Reports; Periodic Thematic Reports; Mid-Term Evaluation; and Terminal Evaluation. The following table summarises the achievement of monitoring actions as of the Terminal Evaluation:Table 3.2.5 M&E Work Plan and Budget vs Actual Cost and Completion Status

Overall Quality of M&E The Results Based Framework (RBF) indicators were clearly described with the source of verification and end of project targets. There were 14 indicators in total, two at the outcome level, two mapped to project objectives, and the remaining indicators reflected against outputs and activities.


Tag: Monitoring and Evaluation Policies & Procedures Programme/Project Design Results-Based Management

8.

3.2.6 Implementing Agency and Executing Agency

Overall, the project has generated strong stakeholder interest and participation from national government agencies, local institutions, international development partners and NGOS. In total, 19 central government agencies were involved with international development partners such as JICA and World Bank and Tarayana Foundation representing the NGOs. The PMU was excellent in coordinating and drawing upon staff resources from several departments and divisions across ministries. There was a high level of trust and transparency in interactions with key national implementing agencies. This was due to efficient coordination carried out by the National Environmental Commission Secretariat (NECS) and the Gross National Happiness Commission (GNHC).


Tag: Implementation Modality Partnership Project and Programme management Quality Assurance Results-Based Management Strategic Positioning Civil Societies and NGOs Country Government International Financial Institutions Coordination

9.

3.3 Project Results

The assessment of the project results is presented here, with baselines and targets taken from the Project Logframe from NAPA II Project Document. For Ratings, the following scale is used to rate the level of achievement: See table in the report.

3.3.1 Overall results

The overall results are presented in the table below.

For Outcome 1, it is safe to assume that all output activities for Outputs 1.1 and 1.2 have been satisfactorily carried out, given that the landslide-prone areas along the highway have been stabilized and river protection walls were built around the Barsa watershed, protecting both PIA and BFAL/BCCL residential colony. However, as there is lack of available data for assessment, the activity areas have been labelled U/A. Output 1.4 is unavailable for assessment due to limitations in data availability

For Outcome 2, it is safe to assume that all output activities for Output 2.1 and 1.2 have been satisfactorily carried out, given that the key achievement in water supply hours for town areas is being extended to 18 hours. In addition, baseline surveys have been conducted for 570 households, the watershed management plan for Yakpugang has been developed and five water reservoirs for water harvesting have been installed in Dophuchen, Samtse. However, as there is lack of available data for assessment, some activity areas have been labelled U/A. For Output 2.3, Activity 2.3.3 Research was initiated by DDM and handed over to DES for implementation.


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Relevance Results-Based Management Theory of Change Capacity Building Data and Statistics

10.

3.3.3 Effectiveness

The project has showed evidence of its ability to support activities of national and local community disaster management. It has achieved the intended outputs and outcomes as evidenced by the results below. However, there remain areas to be improved in order for the outcomes to be better fulfilled. [see Section 4 for further elaboration]. 

Outcome 1: Risk from climate-induced floods and landslides reduced in Bhutan’s economic and industrial center, Phuentsholing and Pasakha Industrial Area - Land slide areas along Reldri School in Phuntsholing and Barsa Watershed at Pasakha provided with protection using geotechand bioengineering - Landslide monitoring and threshold development initiated in 6 sites along southern regions 


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Natural Resouce management Effectiveness Local Governance Resilience Data and Statistics

11.

3.3.6 Mainstreaming

The NAPA II project has links with the following SDG goals: a) Project has initiated water source inventory management system across different districts and also maintaining sustainable usage through various activities. All these links to achievement of SDG Goal 6-Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. b) Project has carried out flood, landslide and windstorm mitigation activities which links to SDG Goal 9- Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation c) Project has carried out various programmes towards the SDG Goal 11-Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. d) The aim of the project is to take actions towards climate change and its impacts. So it directly links to SDG Goal 13-Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. e) All the activities such as landslide and flood protection activities and forest fire management directly links to SDG Goal 15-Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.

Mainstreaming of awareness of climatic-induced risks: The Project has raised the awareness and capability of climatic-induced risks. The project beneficiaries at both central and local levels were aware of the landslides, floods and forest fires. The project activities provided a sense of risk mitigation and governance that they could actually plan and do something about these climaticinduced risks that can become national disasters if not effectively mitigated. There were also specific examples of crisis recovery, in particular the stabilization of all landslide areas in Phuentsholing and Pasakha Industrial Area under Outcome 1, which has significantly reduced the occurrence of floods and landslides, as well as the establishment of forest fire management groups under Outcome 2, which has seen a marked decrease in the number of forest fires prior to the project.

Gender mainstreaming: There were project activities led and participated by women. The project recognizes the disproportionate burden and the many impacts women face because of climate change. The project identifies the role and socio-cultural constraints faced by women that make them vulnerable. Higher rates of women participation were evident in project activities, while empowerment through capacity development was revealed. 


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Environmental impact assessment Natural Resouce management Sustainability Gender Equality Gender Mainstreaming Women's Empowerment Local Governance SDG Integration

12.

3.3.8 Impact

The impact can be assessed with three considerations, that of, an improvement in environmental status, environmental stress reduction and the progress towards stress change. The improvements made towards each project outcome are detailed below. 


Tag: Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Natural Resouce management Impact Local Governance Communication Knowledge management Results-Based Management Resilience Capacity Building

13.

(Continuaiton from Finding 6)

3.2.4 Project Finance 

Planned Total Budget The Project had a total planned budget of USD 67,612,429 endorsed. Under UNDP financing, a planned USD 11,491,200 was budgeted from UNDP LDCF GEF. The details of the planned UNDP financing allocation are as follows: see table in the report. Under Co-financing, a planned total of USD 56,121,229 was budgeted, with USD 38,411,463 from RGoB and USD 17,709,766 from other local and international partners including: ADB, Finnish Meteorology Institute, Government of India, Government of Norway, Helvetas, ICIMOD, Swiss Red Cross, Tarayana Foundation, and the World Bank. The details of the planned co-financing allocation are as follows:

RGoB Co-financing budget of USD 38,411,163 was assigned as follows: Outcome 1 - USD 6,338,299 to construct the Fafe-Khosala bypass road under Zhemgang-Trongsa Highway - USD 25,372,864 capital investments for expansion and industrial development in Phuentsholing Thromde Outcome 2 - USD 1,500,000 for water resource expansion in Mongar Outcome 3 - USD 5,200,000 department budget for DHMS to improve climate data collection and disseminationLocal and International Partners Co-financing budget of USD 17,709,766 was assigned as follows: Outcome 1 - the Government of India provided USD 9,491,666 to construct the DamchuChukha bypass road (DANTAK) under Phuentsholing Thimphu Highway - the Government of Norway provided USD 4,000,000 in DGMTA support for geotechnical studies Outcome 2- the World Bank/GFDRR capacity provided USD 400,000 in building and assessment for DDM at the national level - the Swiss Red Cross provided USD 343,400 in funding for Disaster Preparedness Pilot Project - Tarayana mobilized USD 356,000 from Helvetas; and USD 315,000 from ADB for its poverty reduction projects in Mongar, Samtse, and Pemagatshel disctricts. In addition, Tarayana provided USD 156,000 in-kind co-financing from its resources Outcome 3 - the Finnish Meteorology Institute and ICIMOD provided USD 708,000 in TA support for DHMS capacity building in weather forecasting - ADB provided USD 340,000 for Water Resource Inventory


Tag: Climate Change Adaptation Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Effectiveness Operational Efficiency

14.

Continuation from Finding 10

3.3.4 Efficiency

Although there were early delays at the start of the project due to the bureaucratic process, the project was implemented efficiently within timeline and, in one instance, ahead of schedule. Flood protection mitigation works at Pasakha industrial area – building river protection wall to protect the industrial area as well as the colony – was successfully completed within 12 months, although the project time period was given to be 15 months and was initiated in 2014.Project activities were also successfully completed in all aspects within the timeline in Dophuchen, Samtse. In addition, the expenditures incurred for project activities stayed within their budgeted amounts to achieve satisfactory achievement of results. 


Tag: Climate Change Adaptation Climate change governance Disaster Risk Reduction Efficiency Sustainability Ownership Policies & Procedures Results-Based Management

Recommendations
1

4.3 Proposals for future directions underlining main objectives

Based on the evaluation of the current Project’s objective and outcomes, as well as drawing on the experiences of other GEF projects, the greatest concern is that of sustainability. Whilst DM activities have been successfully launched and foundational capacity has been built, it is important to ensure that there are adequate follow ups so as to capitalise on completed activities. To promote sustainability, the following recommendations are suggested: 

Recommendation 1: Thematic Focused Training with Activity Based Capacity Development:  

Instead of having 2-3 training activities under one theme, it would have been better if one single large training project was formulated to target the root issue, rather than spreading resources thinly to deal with the various downstream activities. For example, instead of having one training workshop where various DM activities are covered (eg landslide, flood protection, water harvesting), it would be better to focus on one theme (eg landslide) and the targeted participants are government staff, local DM committee members and contractors who are working on landslide protection works and activities. In addition, it is recommended that training workshops be a mix of classroom teaching, where knowledge is shared, and field work, where participants get hands-on practice on how to set up landslide protection works for example.

Skills development needs to be linked specifically to a project to ensure that training is relevant and timely, that is, it can be immediately applied to deliver results under the planned project. An example of a skill that is relevant is Water Transfer Pricing, which will accurately assign costs to various components under the project and allow budgeting to be more reflective of real costs incurred. This can be considered for future projects as well as future DM training.

Responsible: All the agencies involved in unique activities of the project

2

Recommendation 2: Replication of successful activities for present as well as future projects ie NAPA III (for example, water filtration, weather forecasting technique transfer to flood forecasting and forest fire; lessons in hydrological mapping; capacity development at Central level replicated to local level)

Replication of successful activities for present as well as future projects (for example, water filtration, weather forecasting technique transfer to flood forecasting and forest fire; lessons in hydrological mapping; capacity development at Central level replicated to local level). During the evaluation, there were a number of successful activities recorded that are worthy of replication. For instance, the general techniques developed for water filtration and weather forecasting could have been applied to flood forecasting and forest fire management, given the similarities in targeted outcomes to be achieved. Similarly, the robust capacity development at the central level of the Government of Bhutan should be replicated at municipal levels, where the foundational capacity laid requires further development for sustained DM resilience. 

For future projects, these dual purposes could be implemented by updating local level officials and field staff on successful lessons learnt during the course of project implementation. This can be achieved through classroom and practical trainings, recordings of success stories or even actual visits to successful pilot sites, depending on budget availability. Funding for these can be acquired through climate change related sources as well as other non-climate related sources.

Responsible: All the agencies involved in unique activities of the project

3

Recommendation 3: Publication and Funding for Innovations to Enhance Resilience against Climate-Induced Risks

In Recommendation 2, replication focused on repeating successful practices nationally within Bhutan. Given the success of uniquely innovative approaches discovered by Bhutan, it is recommended that these be published in international high impact journals such as Springer Nature. Apart from serving as a record for future climate adaptation projects in Bhutan, this can help draw governments, international organisations, academics and researchers to participate and collaborate in climate change adaptation projects in Bhutan. Examples include:

• Outcome 2, Tarayana Foundation, Climate Resilient Water Harvesting: - Construction of water reservoirs - Provision of syntax water tanks for households above and beside Mukapari source where drawing pipelines till home is not feasible o Installation of rain water systems for households - Planting of trees and fencing around the water sources - Provision of pipelines from water reservoirs to reachable households within short distances o Awareness programmes for villagers on: the importance of conserving trees around water sources, refraining from planting trees and crops which require more water

• Output 2.1, Mongar Municipality, Climate-resilient water harvesting, storage and distribution systems: - Water scarcity eliminated in core town areas since 2014 due to dual supply system a) Monsoon season, gravitational supply system in upper location is used b) Lean seasons, pump supply system in lower location is used c) This has made water supply reliable throughout the year, even when maintenance works are required for either supply line. Additional costs are needed for running pumps in lean season

Apart from publication in international journals, it is advised that these innovations be submitted concurrently as proof and evidence of concept to both climate and non-climate funds. This can help draw funding, which is key considering the financial limitations Bhutan faces, and has the added benefit of being targeted to promote DM activities for climate resilience.

Responsible: All the agencies involved in unique activities of the project

4

Recommendation 4: Advanced Capacity Development

Generally, the project has seen improvements in attitude and behaviour across the various communities. However, to ensure long-lasting commitment whilst building on the foundational capacity development laid (in terms of technical skills, knowledge, processes, systems and equipment), there needs to be advanced capacity development. This focuses on changing the attitudes, behaviour and commitment of local communities in Bhutan – in other words, the motivation to carry on with DM activities over the long term. Without the right motivation, it is difficult for sustainable climate change resilience to take root and flourish in Bhutan. Successful motivation was observed in the following:

• Outcome 1, Omchu River, Flood Protection: Initially, villagers within the community found it difficult to understand and implement protective works due to new technology and inadequate capacity of the implementing agencies. However, once the project progressed, they were able to pick up the methodology and have even adopted such mitigation measures through their own initiatives. • Output 2.3, Trashigang and Wangdue districts, Forest Fire Management through Formation of Forest Fire Management Volunteer Groups: Initially the villagers were reluctant to take part and join in community groups as they felt it to be more burdensome and extra work to their already busy lives. However, awareness campaigns as well as discussions have successfully engaged villagers, making them feel responsible in taking part in the fight against forest fires. As a result, they are more willing to volunteer to help out in the event of a forest fire break out in the area. In Chaskhar Gewog, only one forest fire has occurred in close to 3 years (which was initiated by a villager who was of unsound mind). 

In both examples, the key factor in ensuring successful motivation which led to prolonged commitment was villager ownership. When villagers are actively engaged through awareness, training, discussions – and more importantly, involved in decision-making processes – they demonstrate enthusiasm and the willingness to carry on mitigation works, even initiating their own activities at the local level.

Responsible: Phuntsholing Thromde, DGM and Department of Forests 

5

Recommendation 5: Big Data Analytics be deployed, starting with climate change data collected from weather stations, to help develop data models that can be used for analysis, forecasting and simulation.

In recent years, big data analytics has increasingly been applied for climate change management, with various applications such as: - Google Earth Engine (World; used publicly available satellite imagery to track and identify environmental damages over years and decades) - Global Forest Power (World; tracks forest cover, forest fires, deforestation) - Surging Seas (US: accurate sea levels, flood warnings, action plans, sea level patterns, historical data etc)

UN itself has a Global Pulse programme called ‘Data for Climate Change’, which uses big data and data science from the private sector to achieve its climate change goals. 

The value in big data analytics is its potential in generating real-time or near real-time predictions with high accuracy, particularly changes in weather patterns. This can help climate change experts to identify and implement the right solutions to target predicted changes. Given that Bhutan has collected its own climate change data from weather stations, it is recommended that big data analytics be deployed to help develop data models that can be used for analysis, forecasting and simulation. It is suggested that this be included for further development under future projects, with remaining funding (where available) under Outcome 3 to be channelled for this purpose. Additional funding may be secured through climate and non-climate sources, as highlighted earlier. 

Responsible: Major agencies involved in the project such as NEC, DDM, DGM and NCHM 

1. Recommendation:

4.3 Proposals for future directions underlining main objectives

Based on the evaluation of the current Project’s objective and outcomes, as well as drawing on the experiences of other GEF projects, the greatest concern is that of sustainability. Whilst DM activities have been successfully launched and foundational capacity has been built, it is important to ensure that there are adequate follow ups so as to capitalise on completed activities. To promote sustainability, the following recommendations are suggested: 

Recommendation 1: Thematic Focused Training with Activity Based Capacity Development:  

Instead of having 2-3 training activities under one theme, it would have been better if one single large training project was formulated to target the root issue, rather than spreading resources thinly to deal with the various downstream activities. For example, instead of having one training workshop where various DM activities are covered (eg landslide, flood protection, water harvesting), it would be better to focus on one theme (eg landslide) and the targeted participants are government staff, local DM committee members and contractors who are working on landslide protection works and activities. In addition, it is recommended that training workshops be a mix of classroom teaching, where knowledge is shared, and field work, where participants get hands-on practice on how to set up landslide protection works for example.

Skills development needs to be linked specifically to a project to ensure that training is relevant and timely, that is, it can be immediately applied to deliver results under the planned project. An example of a skill that is relevant is Water Transfer Pricing, which will accurately assign costs to various components under the project and allow budgeting to be more reflective of real costs incurred. This can be considered for future projects as well as future DM training.

Responsible: All the agencies involved in unique activities of the project

Management Response: [Added: 2017/08/08] [Last Updated: 2020/12/14]

UNDP CO takes notes of the suggestion to have a thematic focused training. This however was not factored during the design of the NAPA II Project, which had followed the Global Environment Facility’s Project Preparatory Grant guidelines. While the recommendation therefore cannot be taken up by the NAPA II project, it could be considered during design of future pipeline projects.

Key Actions:

2. Recommendation:

Recommendation 2: Replication of successful activities for present as well as future projects ie NAPA III (for example, water filtration, weather forecasting technique transfer to flood forecasting and forest fire; lessons in hydrological mapping; capacity development at Central level replicated to local level)

Replication of successful activities for present as well as future projects (for example, water filtration, weather forecasting technique transfer to flood forecasting and forest fire; lessons in hydrological mapping; capacity development at Central level replicated to local level). During the evaluation, there were a number of successful activities recorded that are worthy of replication. For instance, the general techniques developed for water filtration and weather forecasting could have been applied to flood forecasting and forest fire management, given the similarities in targeted outcomes to be achieved. Similarly, the robust capacity development at the central level of the Government of Bhutan should be replicated at municipal levels, where the foundational capacity laid requires further development for sustained DM resilience. 

For future projects, these dual purposes could be implemented by updating local level officials and field staff on successful lessons learnt during the course of project implementation. This can be achieved through classroom and practical trainings, recordings of success stories or even actual visits to successful pilot sites, depending on budget availability. Funding for these can be acquired through climate change related sources as well as other non-climate related sources.

Responsible: All the agencies involved in unique activities of the project

Management Response: [Added: 2017/08/28] [Last Updated: 2020/12/14]

While UNDP CO takes note of the need to replicate successful activities of the NAPAII Project, these activities cannot be taken up by NAPA III project as it is not a continuation or scale-up of NAPAII Project, and because the funds of NAPA III Project are earmarked for specific outputs.

UNDP support to the Government of Bhutan in climate action started since the development of the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPA) Document in 2006 and its subsequent revision in 2012. The Document had identified 12 climate change related hazards for which there were urgent needs to initiate adaptation works. Based on the Document, the first NAPA project was designed and implemented from 2008-2013. The NAPA I project also known as the GLOF project had focused on Glacial Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF) and community-based disaster risks management. The Second NAPA Project (2014-2018) was designed to address other climate hazards such as landslides, floods, windstorm, disaster management, climate data. The third NAPA project was designed to address climate change vulnerabilities in the agriculture sector.

Key Actions:

3. Recommendation:

Recommendation 3: Publication and Funding for Innovations to Enhance Resilience against Climate-Induced Risks

In Recommendation 2, replication focused on repeating successful practices nationally within Bhutan. Given the success of uniquely innovative approaches discovered by Bhutan, it is recommended that these be published in international high impact journals such as Springer Nature. Apart from serving as a record for future climate adaptation projects in Bhutan, this can help draw governments, international organisations, academics and researchers to participate and collaborate in climate change adaptation projects in Bhutan. Examples include:

• Outcome 2, Tarayana Foundation, Climate Resilient Water Harvesting: - Construction of water reservoirs - Provision of syntax water tanks for households above and beside Mukapari source where drawing pipelines till home is not feasible o Installation of rain water systems for households - Planting of trees and fencing around the water sources - Provision of pipelines from water reservoirs to reachable households within short distances o Awareness programmes for villagers on: the importance of conserving trees around water sources, refraining from planting trees and crops which require more water

• Output 2.1, Mongar Municipality, Climate-resilient water harvesting, storage and distribution systems: - Water scarcity eliminated in core town areas since 2014 due to dual supply system a) Monsoon season, gravitational supply system in upper location is used b) Lean seasons, pump supply system in lower location is used c) This has made water supply reliable throughout the year, even when maintenance works are required for either supply line. Additional costs are needed for running pumps in lean season

Apart from publication in international journals, it is advised that these innovations be submitted concurrently as proof and evidence of concept to both climate and non-climate funds. This can help draw funding, which is key considering the financial limitations Bhutan faces, and has the added benefit of being targeted to promote DM activities for climate resilience.

Responsible: All the agencies involved in unique activities of the project

Management Response: [Added: 2017/08/28] [Last Updated: 2020/12/14]

UNDP CO takes note of the need to communicate the impacts of the project. Following this recommendation, the Project Board reprogrammed USD 6,400 from the overall savings to produce communication materials for the NAPA II Project. 

On the specific recommendation to publish an article in international high impact journal, UNDP CO will study the recommendation to see how it fits within the work schedule.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
UNDP CO to produce communications materials to disseminate project results.
[Added: 2019/05/08]
UNDP 2018/12 Completed UNDP CO produced two videos, two climate exposure stories and two info graphs. These were promoted in March coinciding with the International Women’s Day and World Water Day.
4. Recommendation:

Recommendation 4: Advanced Capacity Development

Generally, the project has seen improvements in attitude and behaviour across the various communities. However, to ensure long-lasting commitment whilst building on the foundational capacity development laid (in terms of technical skills, knowledge, processes, systems and equipment), there needs to be advanced capacity development. This focuses on changing the attitudes, behaviour and commitment of local communities in Bhutan – in other words, the motivation to carry on with DM activities over the long term. Without the right motivation, it is difficult for sustainable climate change resilience to take root and flourish in Bhutan. Successful motivation was observed in the following:

• Outcome 1, Omchu River, Flood Protection: Initially, villagers within the community found it difficult to understand and implement protective works due to new technology and inadequate capacity of the implementing agencies. However, once the project progressed, they were able to pick up the methodology and have even adopted such mitigation measures through their own initiatives. • Output 2.3, Trashigang and Wangdue districts, Forest Fire Management through Formation of Forest Fire Management Volunteer Groups: Initially the villagers were reluctant to take part and join in community groups as they felt it to be more burdensome and extra work to their already busy lives. However, awareness campaigns as well as discussions have successfully engaged villagers, making them feel responsible in taking part in the fight against forest fires. As a result, they are more willing to volunteer to help out in the event of a forest fire break out in the area. In Chaskhar Gewog, only one forest fire has occurred in close to 3 years (which was initiated by a villager who was of unsound mind). 

In both examples, the key factor in ensuring successful motivation which led to prolonged commitment was villager ownership. When villagers are actively engaged through awareness, training, discussions – and more importantly, involved in decision-making processes – they demonstrate enthusiasm and the willingness to carry on mitigation works, even initiating their own activities at the local level.

Responsible: Phuntsholing Thromde, DGM and Department of Forests 

Management Response: [Added: 2019/05/08] [Last Updated: 2020/12/14]

The UNDP CO takes notes of these recommendations, which could be taken care of in the future design of the pipelines.

Key Actions:

5. Recommendation:

Recommendation 5: Big Data Analytics be deployed, starting with climate change data collected from weather stations, to help develop data models that can be used for analysis, forecasting and simulation.

In recent years, big data analytics has increasingly been applied for climate change management, with various applications such as: - Google Earth Engine (World; used publicly available satellite imagery to track and identify environmental damages over years and decades) - Global Forest Power (World; tracks forest cover, forest fires, deforestation) - Surging Seas (US: accurate sea levels, flood warnings, action plans, sea level patterns, historical data etc)

UN itself has a Global Pulse programme called ‘Data for Climate Change’, which uses big data and data science from the private sector to achieve its climate change goals. 

The value in big data analytics is its potential in generating real-time or near real-time predictions with high accuracy, particularly changes in weather patterns. This can help climate change experts to identify and implement the right solutions to target predicted changes. Given that Bhutan has collected its own climate change data from weather stations, it is recommended that big data analytics be deployed to help develop data models that can be used for analysis, forecasting and simulation. It is suggested that this be included for further development under future projects, with remaining funding (where available) under Outcome 3 to be channelled for this purpose. Additional funding may be secured through climate and non-climate sources, as highlighted earlier. 

Responsible: Major agencies involved in the project such as NEC, DDM, DGM and NCHM 

Management Response: [Added: 2019/05/08] [Last Updated: 2020/12/14]

The UNDP CO takes notes of this recommendation. Some work related to the recommendation has been initiated by the National Centre for Hydrology and Metrology (NCHM). Another one will be initiated through the National Adaptation Plan Project.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
Climate projections using big data
[Added: 2019/05/08]
NCHM 2019/03 Completed In March 2019, the NCHM published an analysis of historical climate and its projection for the future in Bhutan, using the big data generated by the weather stations established by the project. The report which can be accessed through the link (http://www.nchm.gov.bt/attachment/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Analysis%20of%20Historical%20Climate%20and%20Climate%20Change%20Projection.pdf) has projected that for the period 2021-2100, Bhutan’s mean annual temperate would increase from 0.8 to 2.8 degrees Celsius, while the mean annual precipitation would increase by 10-30 %.
Climate Vulnerability assessments using climate data and projections.
[Added: 2019/05/08] [Last Updated: 2020/01/15]
UNDP and NEC 2019/12 Completed Implementation of NAP project has started and big climate data collection underway to feed into the studies for climate vulnerabilities History
Climate Vulnerability assessments using climate data and projections.
[Added: 2019/05/08] [Last Updated: 2020/01/15]
UNDP and NEC 2019/12 Completed Implementation of NAP project has started and big climate data collection underway to feed into the studies for climate vulnerabilities History

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