Final project evaluation of UNDP/GEF Promoting Technology Transfer and Market Development for Small Hydropower in Tajikistan

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Evaluation Plan:
2016-2020, Tajikistan
Evaluation Type:
Final Project
Planned End Date:
01/2018
Completion Date:
02/2018
Status:
Completed
Management Response:
Yes
Evaluation Budget(US $):
10,000

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Title Final project evaluation of UNDP/GEF Promoting Technology Transfer and Market Development for Small Hydropower in Tajikistan
Atlas Project Number: 00061194
Evaluation Plan: 2016-2020, Tajikistan
Evaluation Type: Final Project
Status: Completed
Completion Date: 02/2018
Planned End Date: 01/2018
Management Response: Yes
Focus Area:
  • 1. Environment & Sustainable Development
  • 2. Others
Corporate Outcome and Output (UNDP Strategic Plan 2014-2017)
  • 1. Output 1.5. Inclusive and sustainable solutions adopted to achieve increased energy efficiency and universal modern energy access (especially off-grid sources of renewable energy)
SDG Goal
  • Goal 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
SDG Target
  • 7.1 By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services
Evaluation Budget(US $): 10,000
Source of Funding: core, donor funds
Evaluation Expenditure(US $): 16,020
Joint Programme: No
Joint Evaluation: No
Evaluation Team members:
Name Title Email Nationality
Jiri Zeman CZECH REPUBLIC
GEF Evaluation: Yes
GEF Project Title: Promoting Technology Transfer and Market Development for Small Hydropower in Tajikistan
Evaluation Type: Terminal Evaluation
Focal Area: Climate Change
Project Type: FSP
GEF Phase: GEF-4
GEF Project ID: 4160
PIMS Number: 4324
Key Stakeholders: Ministry of Energy and Water Resources
Countries: TAJIKISTAN
Lessons
Findings
1.

4.1 Project design and formulation

The project document is clearly formulated and logically structured. It provides a thorough information and situation analysis, and it clearly defines in detail project implementation strategy; it defines project results framework, time-bound budget and work plan, management arrangements and monitoring and evaluation plan, and explains policy and regulatory context.


Tag: Emission Reduction Energy Relevance Global Environment Facility fund Strategic Positioning Capacity Building

2.

4.1.1 Project relevance

This Project is highly relevant for Tajikistan. Lack of reliable electricity supply is one of the key factors undermining economic development in the country. The Project is consistent with the GEF-4 Strategic Priority “To promote on-grid renewable energy”, as it was designed to directly contribute to the wider use of small hydro resources for power generation by relieving the pressure on the main grid during winter months when grid power supply is constrained.


Tag: Emission Reduction Energy Relevance Global Environment Facility fund Rule of law Country Government Capacity Building

3.

4.1.2 Project implementtion approach

The Project was designed in a wider context of international support to Tajikistan aiming to improve living standards and quality of life. Since 2010, the UNDP Environment and Energy Programme, has been aligned with the United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) and the Country Programme Action Plan (CPAP), and it has been implemented in the framework of the Joint Country Partnership Strategy (JCPS), elaborated by the main development agencies active in Tajikistan.


Tag: Renewable energy Local Governance Rule of law Implementation Modality Country Government UN Agencies Jobs and Livelihoods Poverty Reduction Capacity Building Private Sector

4.

Since then, the UNDP has implemented a few mini-hydro projects in Tajikistan that have benefited rural communities. Based on this experience, the Ministry of Industry and Energy requested UNDP financial support for implementation of the UNDP/GEF project “Promotion of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Use for Development of Rural Communities in Tajikistan” that started in 2010.

As the ProDoc states, all these activities “have to be seen as a stream of funding for implementation of a UNDP-led program on promotion of SHP and renewable energy”.

The project implementation approach is holistic and complex. For full details, please see the project outcome and output level indicators and targets as shown in a LogFrame in Annex 2.

Project implementation approach is based on four components that were designed to include:
 


Tag: Renewable energy Relevance Global Environment Facility fund Country Government Capacity Building

5.

Component 3: SHP demonstrations Improved confidence of communities in the technical and economic viability of SHP technology in supporting socio-economic development

  •  Improved SHP design based on feasibility studies and updated hydrological data, community level development plans
  •  Engineering design of demonstration SHP plants
  •  Construction and commissioning of demonstration SHPs
  •  Training of local entities to own, operate and maintain SHPs
  •  Raising awareness of local beneficiaries in energy efficiency and renewable energy
  •  Micro-loans for energy efficiency and income-generating activities on a community level
  •  Development of local water management plans

Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Relevance Inclusive economic growth Capacity Building

6.

Component 4: SHP replication program Adopted and funded National Scaling-up Program of Renewable EnergyBased Integrated Rural Development

  •  Project results, GHG emission reductions and lesson learned compiled and published
  •  International conference on experience gained in renewable energy-based Integrated Rural Development
  •  Development and funding of a full-size replication program

The project implementation approach is unique primarily in its focus on technology transfer and on strengthening sustainable SHP operation and maintenance by combining it with Integrated Rural Development


Tag: Emission Reduction Renewable energy Effectiveness Relevance Capacity Building

7.

4.1.3 Log-frame analysis The logical framework as of the Project Document was revised by the October 2012 Inception Report. At the Midterm Review removal of the Objective 2.4 was proposed. The MTR did not propose any additional changes to the Logical Framework.

The main change introduced by the Inception Report was downsizing of the end-of-project emission reduction target by 50% to 45 ktCO2, and reduction of number of targeted SHP plants under construction and operation, and related power generation. Nominally, the biggest change was a reduction in the project objective target from 2 714 new Small Hydro Power projects under implementation by EOP to 10.


Tag: Emission Reduction Effectiveness Project and Programme management Results-Based Management

8.

4.1.4 Assumptions and risks

The Project LogFrame defined assumptions for each of project objective, outcome and output targets. The main assumption used can be summarized as:

  • Continued commitment of the Government of Tajikistan and other project partners to deliver expected results of the Project

Specific assumption of Outcome 2 – Technology Transfer included:

  • Demand for SHP is on the rise as a result of establishing favorable policy framework

Table 7 summarizes 7 project risks identified by the Project Document as well as proposed mitigation measures. Risk impact and probability was combined into a single indicator of risk rating.

Out of 7 identified project risks, the only one was rated as “Substantial”, all others as “Moderate” or “Low”.

Higher costs of national developed SHP systems (under Technology Transfer component) in case of slower than expected development of national SHP market (i.e. local demand for SHP) was rated as the highest risk (“Substantial”).

The Inception Report added three more risks, all rated as substantial. They all include risks related to the performance of the Government, namely the risk of political instability/rotation of key project partners, slow implementation of laws and regulations, and a risk of none-establishment of a National EE and RE Trust Fund.


Tag: Renewable energy Relevance Rule of law Risk Management Country Government

9.

4.1.5 Planned stakeholder participation

The Project Document specified key project implementation partners and stakeholders and their scope of work and areas of collaboration with the Project.

Key Project stakeholders identified in the ProDoc, include: 

  •  Ministry of Energy and Industry (MEI) 
  • Agency for Hydrometeorology under the Committee for Environmental Protection 
  • Open Holding Joint Stock Company “Barki Tojik” - national power utility
  •  Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT)
  • Local levels of government (district, jamoat)
  •  Local manufacturers/production facilities and service providers
  •  Local research and educational institutes
  •  Communities Programme of UNDP Tajikistan
  •  Tajikistan Afghanistan Poverty Reduction Initiative (TAPRI)

Additional stakeholders with responsibility and /or interest in energy and renewable energy were identified, namely:

  • Tajik Geological Survey
  • Ministry for Natural Resources
  • Committee for Environmental Protection
  • Ministry of Finance
  • State Committee for Investments
  • Antimonopoly Commission

Tag: Relevance Bilateral partners Country Government

10.

4.1.6 Linkages between the project and other interventions within the sector

Despite a large number of SHP projects being funded and implemented since Tajikistan gained its independence in 1991, the Project Document identified that there was “no project in the country Terminal Evaluation: “Technology Transfer and Market Development for SHP in Tajikistan” 35 addressing the root causes for and barriers to the development of SHP and local development in an integral and comprehensive approach”.

UNDP played a critical and unique role in addressing these barriers and thus in supporting SHP development in more sustainable way. In 2010, UNDP and the Government agreed to launch a new initiative to promote community-based SHPs, and a UNDP sponsored project “Promotion of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Use for Development of Rural Communities in Tajikistan” was launched. These both UNDP and UNDP/GEF projects form basically one SHP promotion initiative lead by UNDP Tajikistan.


Tag: Renewable energy Relevance Programme Synergy Strategic Positioning Poverty Reduction

11.

4.1.7 UNDP comparative advantage

UNDP combines two unique comparative advantages related to this Project in Tajikistan:

  •  On a global level, UNDP is a trusted GEF agency with demonstrated ability to raise funding for its projects, and
  • On a local level, UNDP has been recognized as a leader in creating enabling environment for sustainable SHP development in Tajikistan (see the discussion above).

UNDP has a demonstrated administrative and project management capacity to implement renewable energy projects, it is a neutral GEF implementing agency. UNDP has a substantial incountry and regional expertise and experience from implementing similar renewable and SHP projects in other countries of operation. Through its five area offices located in Khatlon, Sughd and Districts of Republican Subordination, UNDP is very well positioned to outreach the communities on the ground and deliver effective support in addressing local socio-economic challenges. Notwithstanding the fact of being able to closely interact vis-à-vis the local stakeholders and beneficiaries.


Tag: Relevance Global Environment Facility fund Project and Programme management Strategic Positioning

12.

4.1.8 Replication approach and sustainability

The Project Document addressed both the Project sustainability and replication. Long-term sustainability of SHP electricity generation in Tajikistan were planned to be ensured by addressing barriers that impede the development of SHP, i.e. strengthening of the policy, institutional, legal, regulatory and operational capabilities of key national institutions, supporting the development of SHP through a market-driven approach, developing national capabilities and disseminating information. A specific component on SHP technology transfer was designed to secure sustainable replication (and repairs) of financially affordable SHP technologies in Tajikistan.


Tag: Renewable energy Sustainability National Rule of law Capacity Building Institutional Strengthening

13.

4.1.9 Management arrangements

The project was designed to be implemented through the Direct Implementation Modality under the umbrella of UNDP’s Energy and Environment Programme in close coordination with the Ministry of Energy and Industry (Ministry of Energy and Water Resources as of March 2014) and other government entities.

The Ministry was designed to appoint a National Project Director who will be the main Focal Point of the government contact with the project.

A Project Manager (PM) will be hired to manage the activities on a day-to-day basis. The Project Manager will be responsible for overall project coordination and implementation, consolidation of work plans and project papers, preparation of quarterly progress reports, reporting to the project supervisory bodies, and supervising the work of the project experts and other project staff. The PM will also closely coordinate project activities with relevant Government and other institutions and hold regular consultations with project stakeholders.


Tag: Relevance Human and Financial resources Implementation Modality Project and Programme management Country Government

14.

4.1.10 Lessons learned from other relevant projects

Lessons learned from other SHP projects implemented by UNDP and other donors internationally, as well as locally in Tajikistan, were integrated into the very project design by an experienced international consultant, Mr. Zoran Morvaj, who drafted the Project Document.

Specifically, experience gained from following projects implemented by UNDP in Tajikistan were taken into account when designing this Project Document: UNDP sponsored project “Promotion of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Use for Development of Rural Communities in Tajikistan”, the UNDP Communities Program, and the Tajikistan Afghanistan Poverty Reduction Initiative (TAPRI) sponsored by the Government of Japan.

The lessons learned from the UNDP sponsored “Promotion of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Use for Development of Rural Communities in Tajikistan” was very critical to designing the given GEF project. The most relevant lessons learned included:

 


Tag: Renewable energy Relevance Knowledge management Awareness raising Capacity Building

15.

4.2.1 Project implementation and adaptive management

The Project was implemented according to the detailed work plan as it was described in the Project Document and revised in an Inception Report and Annual Work Plans. However, the Project did not focus only on delivery of planned results, but it was implemented in a flexible way reflecting actual development changes and opportunities in Tajikistan, and with a strategic focus on project goal and objective. The implemented Project accommodated additional adjustments and delivered several additional results that are not reflected in the project LogFrame.

A revision of a former National SHP Program 2009-2020 and support in development of a new National SHP Program 2015-2020 was a very important additional activity delivered by the Project, and an interesting example of a very effective adaptive management.

Based on the review of SHPs constructed over the last two decades, the Project identified that one of the main reasons why more than 50% of these new SHPs failed and are no more in operation, was oversizing of SHP design due to improper estimate of available water flow. SHPs were designed for an average annual water flow in rivers. Seasonal water flow fluctuates significantly (ten-fold or even more), and the average water flow is thus not representative nor for the winter, nor for the summer period. Electricity supply from SHP is most critical in winter periods with low water flows in rivers.


Tag: Effectiveness Relevance Implementation Modality Project and Programme management

16.

The Project has thus revised a list of 189 potential mid-size SHP plants as per National SHP Program 2009-2020, and assessed their feasibility and sizing. The Project worked with the Ministry of Energy, agreed upon a need to revise the Program to be more realistic and to exclude SHP locations that are not suitable, and a need to adjust actual SHP sizing (capacity) to actual winter water flows. As a result, the list of suitable SHPPs in a new National SHP Program 2015-2020 was significantly downsized in terms of number of potential SHP plants to 36% (from original 180 potential SHP plants to 62 potential SHPPs, of which 41 SHPPs have prefeasibility study developed already). In terms of capacity, the National Program was downsized to 76% (from 102.2 MW to 77.8 MW total capacity of SHPPs listed in National Programs).

This revision of National SHP Program has significant impacts: The Government and the Ministry of Energy have learned an important lesson and gained an important experience, the quality of the National SHP Program was significantly improved, as well as credibility of information on potential SHPPs listed in the Program available for potential investors. However, on the other hand, the estimated power generation from potential SHPPs and associated GHG emission reductions have been significantly reduced.

 


Tag: Renewable energy Relevance Country Government Institutional Strengthening

17.

4.2.2 Partnerships arrangements

The Project worked with a broad range of stakeholders and project partners that included:

  •  National and local governments and agencies, national parliament
  •  Local beneficiaries, SHP manufacturing and service companies, local communities
  •  International donor community active in Tajikistan

The primary national partner was Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, responsible for energy policy, including SHP, and for development and implementation of SHP legislation and regulations. Other national partners include Barki Tojik utility, Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Ministry of Finance, Antimonopoly Agency, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, State Committee on Investments, and the local jamoats (self-governments). The cooperation with the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, with the Deputy Minister, who served as a Project Director and as a head of the Project Board, as well as with the other staff and experts of the Ministry of Energy was very effective. The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources highlighted effectiveness of the technical assistance provided in developing SHP regulations, National SHP Program and pre-feasibility assessment of 27 SHP plants.


Tag: Relevance Bilateral partners Country Government Private Sector

18.

4.2.3 Monitoring and evaluation

The Project Document described in detail necessary monitoring and evaluation requirements standard to all UNDP-supported GEF-financed projects. Specifically, it drafted a Monitoring and Evaluation Work Plan that identified responsible parties for M&E activities, allocated indicative budget, and specified time frame for each M&E activity. According to the M&E plan, key parties responsible for performing project monitoring and evaluation included Project Manager, Chief Technical Advisor, UNDP Country Office, UNDP GEF Regional Technical Advisor, UNDP Regional Coordination Unit, consultants, and project evaluators.

The Inception Report revised the Monitoring and Evaluation Plan and specified it in more detail.

The project was subject to standard UNDP monitoring and evaluation procedures. Crucial tools used for monitoring and evaluation included the log-frame, Inception Workshop and Inception Report, MidTerm and Final Evaluation, and standard UNDP and GEF planning and reporting tools with quarterly and annual frequency, including risk logs in Atlas, Quarterly Project Progress Reports (PPR), Quarterly and Annual Work Plans (AWP), Annual Project Review/Performance Report (APR), Project Implementation Review (PIR).


Tag: Efficiency Human and Financial resources Monitoring and Evaluation Project and Programme management

19.

4.2.4 Feedback from M&E

activities used for adaptive management Feedback from M&E activities, namely revised work plan and LogFrame of the Inception Report, and recommendations of the MTR were taken into account and implemented in the next phase of project implementation. Feedback from annual PIRs was implemented in following implementation period and annual work plans.

Specifically, the MTR included following six recommendations. The project management response fully endorsed implementation of the MTR recommendations, and the MTR recommendations have been implemented with an extension till December 2017.


Tag: Efficiency Human and Financial resources Monitoring and Evaluation Project and Programme management Results-Based Management

20.

4.2.5 Financial planning and management

The GEF budget of 2 mil USD as of the project document is shown in Table 9.

The Table 12 shows annual project expenditures charged to the GEF budget by project outcomes for each year of project implementation period as reported in Combined Delivery Reports.

The Table 13 shows annual project expenditures charged to the combined GEF + UNDP Trac budget by project outcomes for each year of project implementation period as reported in Combined Delivery Reports.


Tag: Efficiency Global Environment Facility fund Human and Financial resources Operational Efficiency Project and Programme management

21.

4.2.6 Co-financing and in-kind contributions

The actual co-financing disbursed of 11.53 mil USD significantly exceeded the planned co-financing as of ProDoc of 3.03 mil USD. Main additional co-financing contributions were mobilized from the Government of Tajikistan and from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), both contributions were used for investment support of SHP construction, and from UNDP and Euroasian Development Bank.


Tag: Efficiency Human and Financial resources Bilateral partners Country Government Donor

22.

4.2.7 Management by UNDP and implementing partner

The Project was managed according to the planned management scheme specified in the Project Document.

The Project was implemented through the Direct Implementation Modality under the umbrella of UNDP’s Energy and Environment Programme in close coordination with the Ministry of Energy and other government entities. The Ministry of Energy and Water Resources appointed the Deputy Minister, Mr. Jamshed Shoimzoda to serve as a National Project Director, Chair of the Steering Committee, and the main Focal Point of the government contact with the project.

The UNDP Country Office monitors the implementation of Project, reviews project implementation progress, and ensures proper use of GEF funds. UNDP Country Office (CO) provides also support services - including procurement, hiring, contracting of service providers, etc.

The project implementation was managed by the Project Manager, Mr. Jamshed Vazirov – Kodirkulov, and supported by a part-time long-term international Chief Technical Advisor, Mr. Paata Janelidze, and by a full-time local Renewable Energy Engineer, Ms. Violeta Strizhakova.


Tag: Efficiency Sustainability Global Environment Facility fund Human and Financial resources Implementation Modality Project and Programme management

23.

4.3 Results

The design of the 2 mil USD, four-year Project was very ambitious and innovative – aiming to improve quality of life and access to electricity on a large scale, and focusing on establishing local capacities in SHP technologies manufacturing, rather than just relying on technology imports.

The project was designed to focus on SHP, because the “large”, utility-level comprehensive solution, extension of utility capacities in power generation, transmission and distribution, was not feasible and financially affordable neither for the Barki Tojik national power utility, nor for Tajikistan as a whole, due to poor financial situation and low income. Decisions on construction of needed large new power utility generation and transmission capacities have been thus postponed for decades since Tajikistan gained its independence.

During the project implementation period, the situation has changed significantly. In 2016, the construction of the major 3,600 MW hydro power plant Rogun was finally renewed after decades of delays, a new coal-fired 400 MW power and heat plant in Dushanbe was completed in 2016 and a new transmission lines in Tajikistan constructed by Chinese investors. In 2018, the construction of the 1,222 km long CASA-1000 power transmission line with a capacity of 1,000-1,300 MW is expected to be launched9 , connecting Kyrgyzstan with Tajikistan and with Afghanistan and Pakistan in next phases. In 2017, the Government has adopted also a new power supply dispatching policy, giving the priority of supply to residential sector. As of this coming winter, the residential sector thus should not face power supply restrictions during winter season, as it was the common practice by now.


Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Sustainability

24.

Outcome 1:

The Project has supported drafting and adoption of the Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving Law and the Law on Renewable Energy Sources in 2013, including bylaws and provisions for establishment and operation of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Trust Fund in a short-term and long-term, feed-in tariff calculation methodology, national strategy for the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency, the revised National Program for Development of Renewable Energy Sources and Construction of SHPPs for the period of 2015-2020, SHP monitoring tool and cadaster, and simplified procedures for SHP licensing and construction, and terms of SHP connection to the grid.

SHP guidebook with all relevant RE legislation and feed-in tariff calculation methodology was developed, published and distributed, short term strategies for Renewable Energy and Energy


Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Efficiency Rule of law

25.

Outcome 2:

Two local companies, privately owned Energoremont and state-owned Tajiktekstilmash, were selected as beneficiaries of SHP technology transfer and local manufacturers of SHP turbines. A Croatian company Komperg was selected as SHP technology transfer provider. The Project supported the manufacturing capacity of local companies by providing equipment, machinery and tools. The SHP technology transfer was organized in two phases. First, two small 15 kW water turbines were manufactured locally based on a license from Komperg. After its successful completion, additional four larger cross-flow and Kaplan turbines were manufactured under a license from Komperg staff. Both Energoremont and Tajiktekstilmash have had previous experience in larger water turbine reconstruction and repairs, and their staff was trained in SHP turbines manufacturing, installation and maintenance. Electrotechnical control panel and power generators (Serbian company Sever) have been imported, and the mechanical parts, including water turbines, have been manufactured locally. Construction of SHP facility was contracted to local construction companies. The share of locally produced goods and services is estimated to be 60% of total SHP costs.


Tag: Effectiveness Rule of law Country Government Education Capacity Building Private Sector

26.

Outcome 3

Seven SHP plants have been constructed with the direct support from the Project, of which five SHPs were newly developed and development of additional two SHPs has been under development already. Sustainable operation has been ensured by identification of suitable SHP operators who were trained in SHP operation and basic maintenance/service and supported by the basic equipment, local turbine manufacturers are skilled to perform major repairs if needed, innovative electricity fee collection methods have been developed, including non-cash settlement of power bills (barter of agriculture products collectively sold on market for power). Ownership of the new SHP plants was handed over to the local municipalities - jamoats.

All SHP plants operate in an off-grid power island mode, although four SHP are located in the on-grid locations. The reason for this off-grid operation are both technical and financial. First, on-grid operation would require more sophisticated controls. And second, the Barki Tojik utility charges connection fees for integrating new SHPs into its power grid that is deemed to be excessive. During the summer season, Nurofar SHP sells excess power to the neighbouring business, and the Jilikul SHP plans to do so as well.

 


Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Sustainability

27.

Outcome 4

National Strategy for Renewable Energy and corresponding action plans and national programs, revised National SHP Program 2016-2020 with downsized list of potential SHP sites with verified feasibility have been implemented.

The legislation establishing RE and EE Trust Fund is in place, however the funding for the Trust Fund to support investment in new SHP development was not mobilized yet. The Trust Fund is thus expected to serve under the Ministry of Energy and Industry as a consultative agency to assist potential investors in SHP.

Project results report was developed and shared with national partners in 2016. Publication on SHP case studies and experience from the Project is under development and it is scheduled to be published by UNDP Tajikistan in March 2018.


Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Rule of law Country Government

28.

4.3.2 Relevance

The Project was designed in line with Governmental policies and priorities, which highly prioritized SHP development in Tajikistan, namely with the Long-Term Program for Construction of Small Hydro Power Plants for the period 2009-2020, Third Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS-3) of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (2010), and other governmental policies and documents as discussed in Chapter 4.1.1, as well with the revised National SHP Program for 2016-2020. As such, the Project is highly relevant.

Over the Project implementation period, the situation in Tajikistan has changed significantly, as discussed in Chapter 4.3, which resulted in review and changes in country priorities. The top investment priority in energy sector is now clearly focused on large-scale utility level power generation and transmission projects (Rogun hydro power plant, CASA-1000 transmission line). This has impact on limited funding available for future SHP projects, at least in a short term.

Actual investment priorities have changed, the National SHP Program for 2016-2020 has been downsized thanks to focus on quality and feasible potential SHP sites. Governmental financial support to new SHP development has been reduced dramatically, and the EE and RE Trust Fund was not funded yet. However, the policy priorities concerning SHP have not been changed in principal. What has changed significantly is the potential scope of new SHP development in the shortterm, until the transmission CASA-1000 project will be constructed. The relevance of SHP development in Tajikistan has not changed. Despite the current downsizing of the financial support to new SHP development, the relevance of the SHP Project is still rated as Relevant.


Tag: Renewable energy Relevance Country Government

29.

4.3.3 Effectiveness of project implementation

Effectiveness of project implementation evaluates an extent to which an objective has been achieved. Project objective has been defined to “significantly accelerate the development of small-scale hydropower (SHP) by removing barriers through enabling legal and regulatory framework, capacity building and developing sustainable delivery models, thus substantially avoiding the use of conventional biomass and fossil fuels for power and other energy needs.”


Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Rule of law Project and Programme management Country Government Capacity Building

30.

4.3.4 Efficiency - cost-effectiveness of project implementation

UNDP defines project efficiency (cost-effectiveness or efficacy) as an extent to which results have been delivered with the least costly resources possible. The Project with 2 mil USD GEF funding was highly successful in mobilizing co-financing in addition to the planned co-financing as of ProDoc of 3.03 mil USD to support construction of SHP plants. Total co-financing mobilized reached 11.53 mil USD. The GEF funding was used primarily for development of sustainable activities with long-term impact: enabling SHP framework, technology transfer and capacity strengthening, including capacity of local manufacturers to produce SHP technology. Only 4% of GEF budget was used for financing of project management costs. Total direct lifetime emission reductions are estimated to be 139,310 tCO2, which means 14.3 USD of GEF funds provided per ton of CO2 saved. This is higher than current low GHG emission reduction prices, but well below the former 20 USD/tCO2 benchmark. The Project reached its main development and environmental objectives, except for funding of the EE and RE Trust Fund. The cost-efficiency of project implementation is rated Satisfactory.


Tag: Efficiency Global Environment Facility fund Human and Financial resources Operational Efficiency Project and Programme management

31.

4.3.5 Country ownership

This Project can serve as a good example of a full and effective country ownership: it was designed fully in line with national development and environmental priorities of the country. The Government, and specifically the MEWR, as well as other national stakeholders, including local municipalities, demonstrated full support and commitment to successful project implementation. The full country ownership was demonstrated among others by higher than planned local co-financing, including co-financing provided by the Government.

The inability to provide funding for the Trust Fund does not indicate lack of ownership, but it is a result of changed governmental investment priorities after the country finally succeeded to mobilize financing for large power generation and transmission projects pending for decades.

Another example of full country ownership is an implementation of Ministry of Energy own monitoring system of newly developed SHP plants. Representatives of the Ministry visited the Project SHP construction sites, monitored and evaluated the progress of works. The Ministry liaised also with local municipalities regarding effective ownership and operation mode of constructed SHP plants.

One of the main indicators of country ownership is the changed approach of the Ministry of Energy towards development and support of feasible SHPs operated in a sustainable mode. Country ownership is rated Highly Satisfactory.


Tag: Sustainability Ownership Country Government

32.

4.3.6 Mainstreaming and gender equality

Project objectives and outcomes are fully in line with UNDP country program strategies and GEF conventions, namely with the UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) outcomes “Water, sustainable environment and energy”, UNDP Country Programme Action Plan (CPAP) outcome Output 6.2: “Alternative renewable technologies including biogas, hydro, and solar power are demonstrated, understood, and widely used. Favorable policy and legal framework are established and contribute to private sector development”, UNDP country programme Outcome 6: “Improved environmental protection, sustainable natural resources management, and increased access to alternative renewable energy”.

In addition to environmental and resource/energy sustainability, the Project directly supported also other UNDP priorities, namely the economic development, poverty alleviation, and gender equality and women empowerment. Although gender equality was not specifically addressed in the Project Document, it was implicitly integrated in the Project design: unavailability of electricity results in unsustainable tree cutting and utilization of scarce local biomass for heating and open-fire cooking. Because of gender roles in traditional Tajik society, women are primarily those who cook dishes and spend their time in smoky outdoor kitchens with open fire, and are thus exposed to related health risks. The project eliminates wood and biomass collection, the time needed for fuel collection and preparation, as well as health risks associated with its utilization.


Tag: Sustainability Gender Equality Women's Empowerment Bilateral partners UN Agencies Women and gilrs

33.

4.3.7 Prospects of sustainability

4.3.7.1 Financial risks

The ability of Tajikistan to finally mobilize funding for its major large-scale power generation and transmission projects will have a significant positive impact on socio-economic development, but it will have different financial impacts in short-term and mid-/long-term on prospects of SHP development in the country.

In the short-term, until the CASA-1000 project will be finalized, budgetary funding for SHP development will remain limited, and low electricity prices will not attract privately financed SHP projects. During this period, SHP development will primarily depend on continuous financial support/grants from international donor community and from limited national sources.


Tag: Sustainability Ownership Risk Management Country Government

34.

4.3.7.2 Socio-Economic Risks

Social and economic risks with potential impact on project results sustainability include:

  •  Continuous/strengthened economic and governance reforms in Tajikistan to improve the investment climate and mobilize private investment, including foreign investors.
  •  Political stability in the power export countries (Afghanistan) allowing to construct and operate power transmission lines to Pakistan which has impact on financial risk in the long-tem.
  •  Sufficient funding for SHP development even in the short-term, so that the experience and capacity gained in development of feasible SHP projects both at the governmental and local level, and of local companies, will not be lost.
  • Ability of local companies to be competitive with their SHP technology on the market, both in terms of quality and price.

The socio-economic sustainability is rated Moderately Likely.


Tag: Sustainability Risk Management Country Government Private Sector

35.

4.3.7.3 Institutional Framework and Governance Risks

The institutional framework has been strengthened, improved RE policies and legislation, including bylaws have been adopted, including the framework for establishment of the EE and RE Trust Fund and RE/SHP financial support scheme, the technical know-how has been transferred and local stakeholders trained. However, implementation and enforcement is not a one-time effort, but a continuous process that will for sure require also future revisions and update of specific regulations to improve its effectiveness, for example streamlined conditions/affordable price for SHP connection to the grid.

Quality governance, and sufficient accountability and transparency are critical for any investment, and are not specific for SHP development, and are clearly out of scope of this Project.

Institutional framework and governance sustainability is rated Moderately Likely.


Tag: Sustainability Rule of law Risk Management Country Government

36.

4.3.7.4 Environmental Risks

SHP plants have negligible, if any, negative environmental impacts, and significant positive environmental impacts, both globally (GHG reductions), and locally (reduction of unsustainable tree cutting, reduction of fossil fuel and oil/gas consumption etc.).

The only environmental risk that could affect sustainability of SHP operation could be glacier melting and extreme (high and low) water flows in rivers. SHP plants are not located in the river bed, but in a sufficient height. SHP operators have been trained to regularly maintain water inlets and drives to remove stones, and already did remove the stones from water inflows. Potential low water flow in case of melted and disappeared glaciers in a long-term is mitigated by utilization of only a fraction of minimal water flow for SHP production, providing sufficient reserve.

Environmental sustainability is rated Likely.

Overall prospects of sustainability of delivered project results are rated to be Moderately Likely.


Tag: Emission Reduction Natural Resouce management Impact Sustainability Risk Management

37.

4.3.8 Catalytic Role

Despite large number of SHP plants implemented and financed by international donors already, the Project served as a catalyst of development of an enabling SHP framework in Tajikistan. Project’s focus was not on construction of just additional SHP capacity, but it strengthened revised and newly adopted SHP policy, EE and RE legislation, it developed capacity in assessment and development of feasible SHP projects, and changed the mindset of the line ministry from quantitative, based on grants, to qualitative, based on more feasible SHP project development.

The Project has demonstrated “scaling up” of approaches in feasible SHP development on a national level.

The Project has demonstrated replication during its implementation period through knowledge transfer and capacity building primarily on a national level, and internationally/regionally as well (international conference). Expertise and trainings developed by the Project have been utilized also by other international donors financing SHP plants in Tajikistan, such as OSCE.


Tag: Sustainability Rule of law Knowledge management Capacity Building

38.

4.3.9 Project Impact

There have been some 300 SHP plants constructed in Tajikistan and funded by international donors, national government and in some cases by private investors over the last two decades. Most of these grant-funded projects are no more in the operation.

The major achievement of this 2 mil USD GEF-financed Project is not that it constructed additional 5 new SHP plants.

The Project managed to create enabling environment for SHP development, including policy and regulatory framework, capacity strengthening of SHP development and operation, successful SHP technology transfer, demonstration of SHP construction and sustainable operational arrangements. The financial support scheme has been designed and implemented in the EE and RE Law, however, the EE and RE Trust Fund has not been funded, due to budgetary restrictions and change in investment priorities to large scale power utility projects. Despite the fact that the Trust Fund has not been funded and available funding for SHP development is very limited, the Project has did manage to create significant impact.

UNDP through this Project has gained a unique position in Tajikistan recognized by all stakeholders – as a driver and promoter of feasible and sustainable SHP development in the country. Since 5 new SHP projects have been finalized at the end of 2017, GHG emission reduction will fully start materialize after SHP commissioning in December 2017 and start of their full operation. Thus, environmental status improvement and environmental stress reduction cannot be assessed based on measured data, but its prospects can be estimated only. The Progress towards stress/status, environmental status improvement, and environmental stress reduction are estimated to be significant in the long-term, after completion of the CASA-1000 project that will provide opportunities for more investment to SHPs. The project impact is rated to be Significant.

 


Tag: Emission Reduction Renewable energy Sustainability Rule of law Strategic Positioning Country Government Capacity Building

39.

Component 2: Technology transfer
Enhanced technical and planning know-how and developed market chain for SHP

  • Technical and policy guidebook on SHP development
  • On-the-job training of qualified local companies to be capable to manufacture and operate & maintain SHP plants locally
  • Vocational trainings in SHP design, construction and O&M
  • Training of local manufacturers to produce combined electricity and biomass-fired heating and cooking devices

Tag: Renewable energy Relevance Capacity Building Technical Support Private Sector

40.

Despite the decrease of GHG emission reductions from potential SHPPs listed in revised National SHP Program, this revision/adaptive management cannot rated otherwise than very highly. Other examples of implemented adaptive management include:

  •  Support to the establishment of a Renewable and Energy Efficiency Center

The RE and EE Center was established in mid 2017, and it is operated by a private company SystemAvtomatika. The facility has a conference hall for trainings, and a facility for testing performance of photovoltaic panels, the conference hall includes a display of several real-world RE and EE technologies, several trainings of professionals, university teachers and students were held already. The Center organizes also “mobile trainings” in different locations of Tajikistan. The Center organized trainings within this UNDP/GEF Project as well as for other parties and projects, including USAID, CAREC, and ADB. Under the South-South cooperation, the Center organized for example trainings for women on efficient do-it-yourself solar collector, heaters, and cookers, and trainings of trainers.

 


Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Sustainability Results-Based Management Capacity Building

41.
  • Non-cash settlement of electricity bills

TajNor NGO contracted by the Project, developed among others an innovative non-cash scheme for settlement of electricity bills in remote areas. Poor households lacking cash income will settle their electricity bills by provision of their grown agriculture products that will be collected and sold on a market in larger municipalities. Earned cash will then be used for their electricity payments. This scheme will reduce transaction and transport costs of individual households when selling agriculture products as a “wholesale” for the whole community

 


Tag: Jobs and Livelihoods Civil Societies and NGOs Vulnerable

42.
  • Ad hoc adjustment of the SHP technology and facility repairs

Construction of SHPs, and SHP technology transfer witnessed several unexpected challenges. The Project and its partners were flexible enough to implement necessary ad hoc solutions. Technical drawings provided to the Tajiktekstilmash for manufacturing of the Kaplan turbine included a mistake in one detail. The company manufactured the turbine according to the drawings, but was not able to assemble the turbine. After a detailed analysis of the problem, they found together with their Croatian partners, the “small” mistake in technical drawings. The drawings were revised and corrected and Tajiktekstilmash manufactured these specific parts again. After construction of a water inlet channel for the SHP plant, local population used the water from this channel for irrigation of until then dry, uncultivated land. However, the water leaking from an irrigation ditch caused soil erosion and undermined the concrete construction of water channel. The flushed soil around water channel foundations had to be restored.


Tag: Renewable energy Technical Support

43.
  • Mobilizing co-financing for SHP construction and other related activities

The Project was successful to attract co-financing from the JICA under their LITACA project for the investment costs of pilot SHP plants in Jilikul and Shurobod in a total amount of 1.1 mil USD.

The Project raised capital for energy efficient renovation of a school facility in Ghuskef village by implementing innovative crowd-funding. 8 000 USD were raised through crowd-funding and additional 10 000 USD were provided by the UNDP through the Catalytic Facility Fund managed by the Istanbul Regional Hub, and the school was retrofitted to a higher energy efficiency standard (wall and roof insulation, energy efficient lighting and windows, and 2 kWp photovoltaics system were installed).

 


Tag: Sustainability Resource mobilization Bilateral partners

44.
  • Study tours

The Project organized two study tours on SHP to Croatia, in total 18 participants were trained, including senior representatives from the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of Tajikistan, both manufacturers (Energoremont, Tajiktekstilmash), Renewable Energy Association.

 


Tag: Country Government Capacity Building

45.
  • Target of local production of heating and cooking devices was removed

As per MTR recommendations, the target of local production of combined electric and biomass-fired heating and cooking devices for rural households has been removed, since these (mostly Chinese) products are widely available on the Tajik market for an affordable and highly competitive price. Nonelectric energy efficient heating and cooking furnaces were successfully demonstrated under the GEF SGP projects in Tajikistan.


Tag: Renewable energy Relevance

46.

Summary of results

Despite the long-term and large funding of international donors to SHP projects in Tajikistan, this relatively small UNDP-supported and GEF-financed project has been clearly recognized by all stakeholders as a key promoter of enabling environment for SHP development in Tajikistan, which facilitated significant progress in policy and legal framework, design of the RE financial support scheme, strengthened awareness and capacities in feasible SHP development and operation, and established local SHP manufacturing capacity in Tajikistan. The Project demonstrated its approach in seven SHP plants with a total capacity of 745 kW.

Five new pilot SHP projects have been fully developed and constructed with the support of the Project as a green-field project by December 201710 . Additional two SHP projects have been in different stage of development and received direct support from the Project in sustainable operation capacity building of the operators, tariff establishment, power purchase agreement development and signing, and connection to the grid (Nurofar), and in SHP technology transfer (Dashti-Yazgulom). In total, all seven SHP plants generate 139 310 tons of direct project CO2 emission reductions.

However, the main achievement of the Project is not additional capacity in SHP of 745 kW, and related GHG savings.

The main achievement of the Project, that is not reflected in the LogFrame, is the change of the mindset of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources from quantity to quality, change in focus of the Ministry from grants and subsidies for SHP plants with low sustainability to development and support of feasible SHPs with sustainable operation.

Project results as per project outcomes are summarized below. Full description of project targets achievements as per the LogFrame is shown in Chapter 4.3.1.


Tag: Renewable energy Effectiveness Relevance Rule of law Country Government Capacity Building

Recommendations
1

1. Install meters of electricity supplied from the SHP plants

Electricity generated at the SHP plants is metered at electricity meters integrated in control panels. However, part of the electricity generated is used for frequency control through heating of water in ballast water tanks. The Project should install electricity meters at SHP plants outlets to meter net electricity supplied to customers for both, future monitoring and verification of metered electricity consumption for billing.

2

  2. Elimination of soil erosion at SHP in Pinyon

The soil at the water inlet and outlet from the SHP plant at Pinyon was flushed with water flow and threatened foundations of the SHP facility construction. The eroded parts should be covered with soil, and the SHP construction fixed to eliminate further erosion in the future

3

3. Publish project information and documents on-line

The Project has developed, published and disseminated lots of valuable information, documents and publications to local stakeholders. However, these documents are not easily accessible on-line. The Project is encouraged to publish all available relevant project deliverables on-line, either at own UNDP web site, or at web sites of local stakeholders, so that this information would be easily accessible even after Project termination. The information may contain Lesson learned report, updated RE legislation and regulations, project presentations and presentations from the 2016 International Conference, SHP plant fact sheets, List of shortlisted feasible SHP sites from the National SHP Program, etc.

4

4. Continuity in RE support

The project team and the Project Manager have developed significant experience in developing enabling framework for SHP and renewable energy in Tajikistan. UNDP is encouraged to integrate into its potential future renewable energy projects in Tajikistan activities that would support effective implementation of the developed SHP/RE framework also in the future, including RE policy dialogue with the MEWR, support to funding mobilization, and putting the Trust Fund into operation

1. Recommendation:

1. Install meters of electricity supplied from the SHP plants

Electricity generated at the SHP plants is metered at electricity meters integrated in control panels. However, part of the electricity generated is used for frequency control through heating of water in ballast water tanks. The Project should install electricity meters at SHP plants outlets to meter net electricity supplied to customers for both, future monitoring and verification of metered electricity consumption for billing.

Management Response: [Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/12]

Considering that the project has ended the official owners of the SHPPs are informed that the SHP plants need to be equipped with electricity meters.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
Make agreement with the SHPP owners to supply the SHPPs with electricity meters
[Added: 2018/06/06]
PM 2018/06 Completed Whenever SHPP is operational, the owners are informed and agreement is reached
Purchasing and installation of the electricity meters in all 4 SHPPs
[Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2018/11/22]
SHPP owners 2018/11 Completed Electric meters are installed in 3 out of 4 SHPPs History
After the installation of the meters, the SHPPs operators need to control and fix the amount of transmitted electricity for proper financial planning
[Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2019/05/02]
SHPP owners 2019/03 Completed the task with installation of electric meters is completed History
2. Recommendation:

  2. Elimination of soil erosion at SHP in Pinyon

The soil at the water inlet and outlet from the SHP plant at Pinyon was flushed with water flow and threatened foundations of the SHP facility construction. The eroded parts should be covered with soil, and the SHP construction fixed to eliminate further erosion in the future

Management Response: [Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/12]

The recommendation is relevant and has been addressed accordingly.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
Conduct financial assessment of the additional works to be performed to comply with the recommendation
[Added: 2018/06/06]
PM; Contractor; UNDP CO engineer 2018/03 Completed List of additional works identified and submitted;
Eliminating the soil erosion in Pinyon SHPP and perform additional works preventing the erosion in the future according to the findings of the assessment
[Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2018/11/22]
PM; Contractor; UNPD CO Engineer 2018/09 Completed The water channels zones with high risk of flush flooding and soil erosion are covered with concrete plates, and additional works are completed; History
Submit full report on completed works, including evidence
[Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2020/10/05]
Contractor 2019/12 Completed action completed History
3. Recommendation:

3. Publish project information and documents on-line

The Project has developed, published and disseminated lots of valuable information, documents and publications to local stakeholders. However, these documents are not easily accessible on-line. The Project is encouraged to publish all available relevant project deliverables on-line, either at own UNDP web site, or at web sites of local stakeholders, so that this information would be easily accessible even after Project termination. The information may contain Lesson learned report, updated RE legislation and regulations, project presentations and presentations from the 2016 International Conference, SHP plant fact sheets, List of shortlisted feasible SHP sites from the National SHP Program, etc.

Management Response: [Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/12]

The recommendation is relevant and to be adhered to

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
The project team compiles all the materials (photos and videos) and publications developed within the project framework and publishes them on the UNDP and its partners’ websites.
[Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2018/11/22]
PM, UNDP Communications Analyst 2018/12 Completed All materials and publications developed in the framework of the project have been spread out History
4. Recommendation:

4. Continuity in RE support

The project team and the Project Manager have developed significant experience in developing enabling framework for SHP and renewable energy in Tajikistan. UNDP is encouraged to integrate into its potential future renewable energy projects in Tajikistan activities that would support effective implementation of the developed SHP/RE framework also in the future, including RE policy dialogue with the MEWR, support to funding mobilization, and putting the Trust Fund into operation

Management Response: [Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/12]

Continuity in RE support is provided by the continued cooperation and coordination with the MEWR to support the implementation of the national targets on RE development. This also included the development and submission of a project proposal to GEF for funding the Green Energy SMEs Development project

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
Coordinate with the stakeholders and national partners the measures to ensure continuity in RE support
[Added: 2018/06/06]
PM, UNDP Portfolio Manager 2018/03 Completed While this recommendation was provided during the TE period in 2017, the project team had already held consultations with partners and national stakeholders to define the areas of supporting the RE support.
Based on the findings from the consultations, develop decent project proposal and aim towards raising funds for the continuity in RE support
[Added: 2018/06/06]
PM; UNDP Portfolio Manager; IRH 2018/04 Completed The project developed and approved by the donor – GEF
Support the development of new legislations and assist in implementation of the existing laws and sub-laws. Special stress needs to be put to establishing the National Trust Fund for RE and EE, which is fixed in the law on “EE and ES”.
[Added: 2018/06/06] [Last Updated: 2020/10/05]
PM; UNDP CO 2020/06 Completed completed History

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