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Terminal Evaluation of UNDP/GEF Project: Belarus: Improving Energy Efficiency in Residential Buildings

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Evaluation Plan:
2016-2020, Belarus
Evaluation Type:
Final Project
Planned End Date:
12/2018
Completion Date:
06/2018
Status:
Completed
Management Response:
Yes
Evaluation Budget(US $):
40,000

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Download document 180616R IEERB TOR.pdf tor English 1323.60 KB Posted 57
Download document 180616R IEERB TOR2.doc tor English 248.00 KB Posted 47
Download document 180616R IEERB TE Report Final.pdf report English 2149.07 KB Posted 106
Title Terminal Evaluation of UNDP/GEF Project: Belarus: Improving Energy Efficiency in Residential Buildings
Atlas Project Number: 61054
Evaluation Plan: 2016-2020, Belarus
Evaluation Type: Final Project
Status: Completed
Completion Date: 06/2018
Planned End Date: 12/2018
Management Response: Yes
Focus Area:
  • 1. Environment & Sustainable Development
  • 2. Others
Corporate Outcome and Output (UNDP Strategic Plan 2014-2017)
  • 1. Output 1.5. Inclusive and sustainable solutions adopted to achieve increased energy efficiency and universal modern energy access (especially off-grid sources of renewable energy)
Evaluation Budget(US $): 40,000
Source of Funding:
Evaluation Expenditure(US $): 32,356
Joint Programme: No
Mandatory Evaluation: No
Joint Evaluation: No
Evaluation Team members:
Name Title Email Nationality
Roland Wang Mr rolandwong@shaw.ca
Viktoryia Kalosha Ms viktoryia.kalosha@gmail.com
GEF Evaluation: Yes
GEF Project Title: Belarus: LGGE Improving Energy Efficiency in Residential Buildings
Evaluation Type: Terminal Evaluation
Focal Area: Climate Change
Project Type: FSP
GEF Phase: GEF-4
GEF Project ID: 4228
PIMS Number: 4290
Key Stakeholders: Line Ministries; Implementing Partners; UN agencies; CSOs, private sector
Countries: BELARUS, REPUBLIC OF
Lessons
1.

1. The IEERB Project has provided excellent support within a period of 6 years to improve the enabling environment for increased investments into EE residential buildings in Belarus, notwithstanding the Project having a weak Project Results Framework (PRF) which did not convey to the Evaluation Team the targets that the Project needed to meet to achieve its overall objective. With strong and stable leadership of the IEERB Project from a highly experienced and top Belarussian climate change expert, the IEERB PMU was able to overcome this issue and facilitate significant achievements for energy efficiency in the building sector in Belarus:
• It has raised awareness in Belarus amongst all building stakeholders of the benefits of energy efficiency in residential buildings;
• It has provided support to the Government of Belarus in the preparation of a Technical Code on Energy Performance of Buildings (TC-EPB) that is aligned with EU Directive 2010/31/EU and has been approved by a number of key technical entities prior to its full adoption;
• It has also improved the capacities of building professionals with various academic institutes through the process of preparing the TC-EPB, disseminating knowledge products and contributing to academic construction curriculums;
• It has supported the completion of 3 A+ energy efficient residential buildings that will serve as an excellent resource for generating information on EE buildings, and inform policy improvements for the Government of Belarus to the TC-EPB.

2. The long-term sustainability of the IEERB Project of reducing energy consumption and GHG emission reductions on new residential buildings, however, is difficult to assess considering that existing heating tariff rates are too low for economic justification of the installation of energy efficient heating equipment in buildings, and the uncertainty of when these heating tariffs will be raised from a 21.4% to a 50% recovery rate; as shown on Table 7, the decrease in the number of EE buildings approved from 2016 to 2017 is an indicator of this need for a heating tariff review and amendment. There have been several Government Decrees (most recently 2016) proposing the raising of heating tariffs from 20% to 50% of the real cost by 2020, making EE measures economically feasible after 2020. There is also the expected full adoption of the TC-EPB that will make it mandatory for Belarusian building developers to implement energy efficiency measures in their buildings notwithstanding the low heating tariffs.


3. Looking forward in the context of sustaining the objectives of the IEERB Project of reducing energy consumption and related GHG emissions with a focus on new residential buildings, the IEERB Project has left a solid foundation consisting of the TC-EPB, raised awareness, strengthened technical capacity and demonstration EE buildings (as described in Para 103). However, the building sector will continue to need Government support to sustain further reductions of energy consumption and GHG emissions from the sector:
• Technical capacities of building technicians, operators and owners needs to be periodically
refreshed to ensure minimization of fossil fuel consumption for heat generation from district
CHPs. The lack of attention to maintaining these fuel system over the long-term can lead to
increasing inefficiencies and trends of increased fuel consumption;
• While the IEERB Project focused on energy efficiency of new buildings, the Government of
Belarus will need to refocus its efforts in this sector on implementing energy efficiency measures for the existing building stock which is more than 98% of all buildings in Belarus, if it wishes to sustain a downward trajectory of energy consumption and GHG emissions from the building sector;
• GHG emission reduction calculations from energy efficiency of new buildings as well as
retrofitted existing buildings needs to be more robust and institutionalized with the involvement of MoNREP. While the IEERB Project has initiated work towards its institutionalization with RUE Belarusian Research Centre “Ecology”, continued work in this area is required to build the country’s database on actual energy consumption in buildings, instead of a database that only contains buildings that are compliant with the TC-EPB.
Findings
1.

Actual Outcomes as of March 2017

  • Actual achievement toward objective: Measures to reduce energy
    consumption and GHG emission reductions on new residential
    buildings have been demonstrated on this Project.
    Notwithstanding the new TC-EPB standards for energy efficiency
    of buildings, the timing of adoption of energy efficient heating
    equipment by owners of new buildings is difficult to assess
    considering the uncertainty of when existing heating tariffs will be
    raised from a recovery rate of 21.4% to an estimated 50% that will
    economically justify the installation of such measures.
    Furthermore, the dissemination of positive information of actual
    energy saved from these measures under normal occupancy
    conditions in new buildings would accelerate widespread
    adoption.

 

  • Actual Outcome 1: Legal and regulatory framework to support the enforcement of the Technical Code for Energy Performance of Buildings (TC-EPB) has been strengthened.
  • Actual Outcome 2: The capacity of the Belarusian building specialists has been enhanced to enforce implementation of new energy efficiency standards according to the TC-EPB with an initial focus on residential buildings.
  • Actual Outcome 3: Demonstration energy efficient buildings have been  completed, and will be able to generate normal energy consumption data within 18 to 24 months when these buildings are under normal occupancy conditions.
  • Actual Outcome 4: Project results on supporting legal and regulatory framework of the TC-EPB has been institutionalized as well as the results of the energy savings from the pilot EE buildings (to comply with the Order of July 4, 2017 No.04/26p by the Deputy Prime Minister that was initiated by the Project.
Recommendations
1

To improve design of the future CCM projects including any follow-up “building energy efficiency” project
2

To improve implementation of future projects similar to IEERB, the PRF (strengthened through ToC analysis and ROtI) needs to be used as a guide for preparing project work plans.
3

Continue training workshops in oblast training centres to ensure the availability of a critical mass of certified EE building operational personnel.
4

(to MoHU with assistance from EED and UNDP): Set up a program that continually informs occupants of EE buildings on optimizing use of their EE systems for hot water, heating and fresh air ventilation systems.
5

(to the Ministry of Architecture and Construction (MoAC) with assistance from DEE and UNDP): Continue training programs to ensure the availability of a critical mass of building design personnel to enforce compliance to the TC-EPB
6

(to EED and MoHU): Monitor progress of Decree No.1037 of 29.12.2017 on the “Concept of Improvement and Development of Housing and Utility Services until 2025” addressing elimination of cross-subsidies and upward adjustment of low heating tariff rate towards 50% and higher that should be
7

(to DEE and MoAC): Disseminate monitored energy consumption data from 3 demo buildings to the Government policymakers and investors in line with Deputy Prime Minister’s Order No.04/26p of July 4, 2017, with more emphasis on the time when the pilot buildings are fully occupied and when the tenants have been in their units for a sufficient time during which their energy consumption would be normalized; this could be as long as 18-24 months when all units are occupied although the currently monitored data are being provided for decision makers..
8

(to MoNREP): Provide support to appropriate institutions to help formalize protocols and methodologies developed by the Project for reporting GHG emission reductions for EE buildings and retrofits
9

(to EED): Support future retrofit programs or construction of new EE buildings (supported either by GoB or donors) through training of building energy operators or managers using experiences gained through the Project
10

Scope for improved practice: Many country offices including Belarus need assistance in the preparation of ProDocs, most notably the Project Results Framework which needs to be focused with insertion of SMART indicators that directly contribute to an intended outcome.
1. Recommendation:

To improve design of the future CCM projects including any follow-up “building energy efficiency” project
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking*

Status

Comments

1.1.  Future projects should contain a clear logical framework matrix with SMART indicators and measurable targets that are reflected in the project outputs.

2018 -on

UNDP

On-going

This relates to future projects and should be considered during the project preparation phase.

1.2 Specific M&E activities should be designed that can help project teams focus on specific indicators for monitoring and respective and the respective adequate budget allocated in the project document.

2018 -on

UNDP

On-going

1.3 In the future projects that would focus on energy efficiency in residential sector sufficient resources should be allocated for capacity building of building owners and buildings operators to monitor energy consumption

2018 -on

UNDP

On-going

Key Actions:

2. Recommendation:

To improve implementation of future projects similar to IEERB, the PRF (strengthened through ToC analysis and ROtI) needs to be used as a guide for preparing project work plans.
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

Management Response: All new projects include theory of change as a standard section in the Project Document. PRF is used as a guide for ADWP preparation.

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

2.1.  Constantly monitor that PRF is used for ADWP preparation

2018 -on

UNDP

On-going

The best timing is during the APR and ADWP preparation.

 

Key Actions:

3. Recommendation:

Continue training workshops in oblast training centres to ensure the availability of a critical mass of certified EE building operational personnel.
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

This recommendation is addressed to the Ministry of Housing and Utilities (MoHU) and the Energy Efficiency Department (EED) capitalizing on the expert and institutional capacities built within the project.

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

3.1  As a post-project monitoring, request information from the MoHU and EED on the training activities after the project completion

Jun  - Jul 2019

UNDP. MoHU and EED

pending

The project ended in Jul 2018.

3.2 Discuss with the national partners further capacity building needs which can be including in one of the future projects.

Jul – Jan 2019

UNDP. MoHU and EED

pending

To meet with the MoHU and EED to discuss their capacity building needs to be considered for future energy efficient projects.

Key Actions:

4. Recommendation:

(to MoHU with assistance from EED and UNDP): Set up a program that continually informs occupants of EE buildings on optimizing use of their EE systems for hot water, heating and fresh air ventilation systems.
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

The MoHU and EED should use the capacity built within the project

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

4.1 Discuss with the MoHU and EED if they need such a programme along with a very preliminary programme content. 

Jul-Jan 2018

UNDP. MoHU and EED

pending

The best option will be the government allocating their own resources to develop such a programme which can be used for other buildings, as well.

4.2. Consider including the development of such a programme within future projects focusing on energy efficiency

2018-on

UNDP

On-going

Key Actions:

5. Recommendation:

(to the Ministry of Architecture and Construction (MoAC) with assistance from DEE and UNDP): Continue training programs to ensure the availability of a critical mass of building design personnel to enforce compliance to the TC-EPB
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

The MoAC should and EED should use the capacity built within the project

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

5.1  As a post-project monitoring, request information from the MoAC and EED on the training activities after the project completion

Jul – Jan 2019

UNDP. MoAC and EED

pending

The project ended in Jul 2018.

5.2 Discuss with the national partners further capacity building needs which can be including in one of the future projects.

Jul – Jan 2019

UNDP. MoAC and EED

pending

Key Actions:

6. Recommendation:

(to EED and MoHU): Monitor progress of Decree No.1037 of 29.12.2017 on the “Concept of Improvement and Development of Housing and Utility Services until 2025” addressing elimination of cross-subsidies and upward adjustment of low heating tariff rate towards 50% and higher that should be
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

This issue is politicized and beyond UNDP control and influence. UNDP should however monitor the elimination of cross subsidies as this will drastically affect economic attractiveness of energy efficiency in residential sector

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

6.1  Monitor the elimination of cross subsidies as this will drastically affect economic attractiveness of energy efficiency in residential sector

2018 - on

UNDP

On-going

UNDP has been and will be monitoring this issues as it defines significantly the national energy efficiency policy and practice

 

Key Actions:

7. Recommendation:

(to DEE and MoAC): Disseminate monitored energy consumption data from 3 demo buildings to the Government policymakers and investors in line with Deputy Prime Minister’s Order No.04/26p of July 4, 2017, with more emphasis on the time when the pilot buildings are fully occupied and when the tenants have been in their units for a sufficient time during which their energy consumption would be normalized; this could be as long as 18-24 months when all units are occupied although the currently monitored data are being provided for decision makers..
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

The information on pilot buildings actual energy consumption would be very valuable for estimation of the effectiveness of the energy efficiency technologies and approaches employed by the project and can be used for future energy efficiency related projects designed by UNDP and the Government.

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

7.1  As a post-project monitoring, request information from the MoAC and EED on the actual energy consumption from 3 demo buildings

June 2019, June 2020 and June 2021

UNDP. MoAC and EED

pending

Data should be requested after the completion  of  a heating period

Key Actions:

8. Recommendation:

(to MoNREP): Provide support to appropriate institutions to help formalize protocols and methodologies developed by the Project for reporting GHG emission reductions for EE buildings and retrofits
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

UNDP may provide assistance to the MoNREP to elaborate/update/tailor the protocols and methodologies for GHG emission reductions reporting.

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

8.1  Discuss with the MoNREP (and other relevant stakeholders) their needs with respect to the use of the protocols and methodologies developed by the Project for reporting GHG emission reductions for EE buildings and retrofits. Based on the results of these consultations, consider to assist the MoEnv in elaborating/updating/tailoring the protocols and methodologies for GHG emission reductions reporting within future climate change related projects, e.g. the MRV project.

Jul-Jan 2018

UNDP. MoEnv, PIU

On-going

N/A

Key Actions:

9. Recommendation:

(to EED): Support future retrofit programs or construction of new EE buildings (supported either by GoB or donors) through training of building energy operators or managers using experiences gained through the Project
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

The EED should use the capacity build within the project.  If appropriate, activities on training of the respective specialists into the scopes of future climate change related projects.

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

9.1  Discuss with the EED, MoAC and other stakeholder their needs with respect to knowledge and skills building of building energy operators or managers.

2018 -2020

UNDP. MoAC and EED

On-going

This is an on-going discussion and UNDP assistance will depend on resource availability.

Key Actions:

10. Recommendation:

Scope for improved practice: Many country offices including Belarus need assistance in the preparation of ProDocs, most notably the Project Results Framework which needs to be focused with insertion of SMART indicators that directly contribute to an intended outcome.
Management Response: [Added: 2018/11/09]

During the project formulation stage seek assistance from the IRH with respect the PRF and the set of targets and indicators quality

Key Action(s)

Time Frame

Responsible Unit(s)

Tracking

Status

Comments

10.1  send draft ProDocs to the IRH specialist for review of the PRF and the proposed set of targets and indicator for every new project

2018 -on

UNDP CO and IRH.

On-going

It is our usual practice to get IRH commenting on and clear new Project Documents and we will continue this practice.

Key Actions:

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