Terminal Evaluation of Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project (CFGORRP)

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Evaluation Plan:
2018-2022, Nepal
Evaluation Type:
Final Project
Planned End Date:
11/2018
Completion Date:
11/2019
Status:
Completed
Management Response:
Yes
Evaluation Budget(US $):
30,000

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Title Terminal Evaluation of Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project (CFGORRP)
Atlas Project Number: 00069781
Evaluation Plan: 2018-2022, Nepal
Evaluation Type: Final Project
Status: Completed
Completion Date: 11/2019
Planned End Date: 11/2018
Management Response: Yes
UNDP Signature Solution:
  • 1. Resilience
Corporate Outcome and Output (UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021)
  • 1. Output 3.3.1 Evidence-based assessment and planning tools and mechanisms applied to enable implementation of gender-sensitive and risk-informed prevention and preparedness to limit the impact of natural hazards and pandemics and promote peaceful, just and inclusive societies
SDG Goal
  • Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
SDG Target
  • 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries
  • 13.2 Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning
Evaluation Budget(US $): 30,000
Source of Funding: Project Budget
Evaluation Expenditure(US $): 40,000
Joint Programme: No
Joint Evaluation: No
Evaluation Team members:
Name Title Email Nationality
Bapon Fakhruddin BFakhruddin@tonkintaylor.co.nz
Govinda Basnet gbasnet@gmail.com
GEF Evaluation: Yes
GEF Project Title: Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project
Evaluation Type: Terminal Evaluation
Focal Area: Climate Change
Project Type: FSP
GEF Phase: GEF-5
GEF Project ID: 4551
PIMS Number: 4657
Key Stakeholders: UNDP, Ministry of Environment, Science, and Technology (MoEST), Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Water Induced Disaster Management, Ministry of Home Affairs
Countries: NEPAL
Lessons
Findings
Recommendations
1

Floods from moraine-dammed lake failures can have long standing effects not only on riverine landscapes but also on mountain communities due to the high intensity (i.e. great depth and high velocities) and damaging capacity of glacial lake outburst ?oods. Policy, strategy, and guidelines are essential for GLOF risk management. More research of sound scienti?c basis need to be developed for predicting glacier response to climate change along with clear criteria for prioritizing mitigation efforts.

2

The risk of GLOFs cannot be completely eliminated unless the lakes are fully drained. In fact, reinforced dams and partially drained lakes have produced GLOFs. The non-feasibility of draining all hazardous lakes calls for the development of integral approaches to reduce the GLOF hazard and risk. This includes soft (land use planning) and hard (geotechnical works) mitigation measures in the frame of coordinated plans including actions before, during, and after the emergency.

3

Glacial lake evolution is complex, driven in part by sediment deposition and reduced numbers of surrounding ice cliffs. Geophysical tools for measuring subsurface properties of glacial lakes and moraine dams could be monitored on a regular basis. This could enable understanding subsurface characteristics.

4

The implementing agency (e.g. DHM) could consider the risk and assumptions of similar project designs and the feasibility of conducting construction works in a remote, high altitude area, as well as a procurement plan.

5

The DHM could share the success stories of the Imja Lake experience with other mountainous countries and apply a similar technology and management for other high risk glacial lakes.

6

The evacuation centers, especially in Component 1, differed widely in terms of convenience of access, area of open space, and facilities. Standardization of safe evacuation shelters is needed along with a proper shelter management plan.

7

In any future design of flood risk management projects, the Integrated Watershed Management approach should be adopted. A livelihood component and pro-poor recovery should also be an integral part of the future design.

8

Flood risk mapping and increased lead time using NWP models for EWS should be done. Rapid damage mapping for response could enhance flood response and recovery in the Terai area.

9

The river systems in the Terai provide a source of irrigation for the local communities. In some areas, construction of embankments has obstructed the irrigation system. Embankments should be integrated with the drainage and irrigation infrastructure.

10

The ‘Build Back Better’ culture/making community could be adopted in flood prone areas following the Sendai framework for DRR and UNISDR making settlement resilience of disaster risk reduction

11

In order to ensure sustainability of the project effects and to strengthen its institutional base, exit workshops should be conducted with relevant stakeholders for documenting and sharing project achievements, its institutional basis, and the works to be done at the local level as well. This could ensure asset management and ownership of resources.

12

Asset management and ownership of resources is important in this type of inter-agency programs. An inter-agency Letter of Agreement for resource handover and maintenance would ensure sustainability of the project.

1. Recommendation:

Floods from moraine-dammed lake failures can have long standing effects not only on riverine landscapes but also on mountain communities due to the high intensity (i.e. great depth and high velocities) and damaging capacity of glacial lake outburst ?oods. Policy, strategy, and guidelines are essential for GLOF risk management. More research of sound scienti?c basis need to be developed for predicting glacier response to climate change along with clear criteria for prioritizing mitigation efforts.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

With the new federal governance system, Nepal is setting up institutions at federal, province and local government for effective climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction approach. GLOF is one of the priority hazards that DHM is mandated for its study, assessment, preparedness and mitigation measures. DHM with it’s new institutional set up, Snow and Glacier Section will take this recommendation forward in the guidance of Director General and   UNDP will advocate for the policy set up as well as it’s implementation. The future projects (such as GCF, GEF) will also take this recommendation as potential activities of the project intervention.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
1.1 The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation has come up with new organization structure to smoothen the DHM’s actions and will update the O&M as required.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed New structure has linked multiple divisions within DHM for better cooperation within the organization.
1.2 DHM has prioritized research, monitoring on glacier and glacial lakes in its programme and budgeting.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed These recommendations go beyond the project's end.
2. Recommendation:

The risk of GLOFs cannot be completely eliminated unless the lakes are fully drained. In fact, reinforced dams and partially drained lakes have produced GLOFs. The non-feasibility of draining all hazardous lakes calls for the development of integral approaches to reduce the GLOF hazard and risk. This includes soft (land use planning) and hard (geotechnical works) mitigation measures in the frame of coordinated plans including actions before, during, and after the emergency.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

UNDP and DHM have worked with ICIMOD to update the inventory of Glacial Lakes in Nepal, Tibet and India and identified the list of critical lakes which are potentially dangerous for outbursts. This would be a good reference document to prioritize the glacial lakes and glaciated basins for integrated approach for risk reduction and management considering the upstream and downstream linkages. In addition, UNDP is advocating for Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning (RSLUP) and some municipalities have been supported to prepare and implement the RSLUP considering some specific hazards such as earthquake etc. However, this is equally important to consider the GLOF as well. Multi-hazards Risk assessment based integrated watershed management planning has also been practiced in collaboration of UNDP and Government of Nepal. The existing network of Emergency Operation Centre has been very effective for taking actions to save lives and livelihoods.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
2.1 Preparation of Inventory of Glacial Lakes in Nepal and also of that of upstream which pose threats of GLOF in Nepal and identification of critical lakes
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2019/03 Completed This document has been extremely useful for identification of priority Glacial Lakes for GLOF Risk Reduction project for GCF Submission
2.2 Supporting Government of Nepal, particularly DHM with lake monitoring equipment and supporting community based institutions with post disaster response equipment – search and rescue , first aid etc.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2018/12 Completed DHM and Community groups will manage the equipment / tools for sustained use.
3. Recommendation:

Glacial lake evolution is complex, driven in part by sediment deposition and reduced numbers of surrounding ice cliffs. Geophysical tools for measuring subsurface properties of glacial lakes and moraine dams could be monitored on a regular basis. This could enable understanding subsurface characteristics.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

Glacier and Glacial Lakes are more dynamic in nature in the context of Climate Change. Geo-physical changes may occur in the lake, parent glacier, hanging cliffs, moraines etc. which need to be monitored on a regular basis to understand the risks of GLOF. The increment in the volume of lake water, receding of the glaciers, strength of the end moraines etc. may change along the time. With the support of the project, DHM has been  provided  with lake monitoring equipment/ tools for regular monitoring of the lakes and DHM has also  allocated budget on annual basis for monitoring the lakes as well as the annual maintenance of the automatic weather stations.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
3.1 Regular monitoring of Glacial Lakes and the lake lowering structures
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed The equipment procured under the project have been useful.
3.2 Annual maintenance of Hydro-met stations
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed DHM has allocated funds for maintaining the hydro-met stations
4. Recommendation:

The implementing agency (e.g. DHM) could consider the risk and assumptions of similar project designs and the feasibility of conducting construction works in a remote, high altitude area, as well as a procurement plan.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM in collaboration with UNDP is working on project formulation for GCF Submission on Climate Change induced disasters including GLOF and the learning of CFGORRP will be reflected in all aspects including project formulation, implementation, quality assurance, monitoring and sustainability in such remote and high altitude areas.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
4.1 Government of Nepal is formulating a proposal for GCF Submission and DHM as an Executive Entity, is leading the Project Formulation Technical Advisory Committee. The national priorities on GLOF Risk Reduction such as lake lowering or any other means to lower the lakes, installation of high altitude hydro-met stations, provision of technological advancement of modelling for forecasting and prediction for effective EWS are identified as key intervention areas.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2020/12 Initiated UNDP, as a IAE, has been supporting Government of Nepal to formulate the project proposal.
5. Recommendation:

The DHM could share the success stories of the Imja Lake experience with other mountainous countries and apply a similar technology and management for other high risk glacial lakes.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM/UNDP- CFGORRP has published a good numbers of knowledge products of the project that includes Best Practices, Lessons and Success Stories, Handbook on Imja Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Management, User Manual of Imja Hydro-Meteorological and Early Warning System, Project Completion Report,  Sediment Monitoring Protocol  for Churia Originating River Systems, Children Stories  Book on environment and conservation including the stories in Climate Change and  GLOF etc. 

The success stories have been presented in various national and international workshops/ seminar including in Sikkim, Malasiya and one has been planned in Bhutan in year 2019.

DHM in collaboration with UNDP is working on project formulation for GCF Submission on Climate Change induced disasters including GLOF and the learning of CFGORRP will be reflected in all aspects including project formulation, implementation, quality assurance, monitoring and sustainability in such remote and high- altitude areas.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
5.1 Publication of knowledge products and sharing among the stakeholders in the workshop and using other modes/media
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/UNDP- CFGORRP 2018/12 Completed
5.2 Application of learning from the project while formulating the project for submission to relevant donors
[Added: 2020/01/06]
Government of Nepal- Particularly Department of Hydrology and Meteorology under Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation and Department of Forests and Soil Conservations / Ministry of Forests and Environment and UNDP. 2020/12 Initiated Project Formulation for GCF Submission
6. Recommendation:

The evacuation centers, especially in Component 1, differed widely in terms of convenience of access, area of open space, and facilities. Standardization of safe evacuation shelters is needed along with a proper shelter management plan.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

Evacuation shelter has to meet all the basic facilities requirements such as water and sanitation, safety and security, access to food and more attention has to be paid for physically disabled people, older ages, pregnant women and children. Each community for all kind of hazards risk should identify an evacuation route and shelter in a safer vicinity with the standard facilities that should fulfil basic requirements during shelter. National Disaster Response Framework -2013 is approved by the Government and will be revised as per the learning of 2015 Earthquake. Standardization of shelter is one of important aspects which meet the minimum requirement during the stay in shelter. The clusters approach has been in practice in which WASH, SHELTER among others are the key during various stages of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
6.1 Updating the National Disaster Response Framework
[Added: 2020/01/06]
Government of Nepal / Ministry of Home Affairs 2019/06 Completed Available in Govt. Website – drrportal.gov.np
6.2 Mock Drill Practice for safe evacuation and shelter management
[Added: 2020/01/06]
Government of Nepal and Communities 2020/12 Initiated
7. Recommendation:

In any future design of flood risk management projects, the Integrated Watershed Management approach should be adopted. A livelihood component and pro-poor recovery should also be an integral part of the future design.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

UNDP has been advocating for consideration of Integrated Watershed Management Approach (IWMA) since long and has implemented a number of projects considering upstream and downstream linkages in collaboration of Government of Nepal.  The joint upcoming projects of UNDP and Government of Nepal are also formulated in the principle of IWMA and will be implemented accordingly.

It is a proven fact that the livelihood component of any CCA and DRR intervention ensures the participation of the local community members for its implementation and also this ensures sustainability of the intervention with proper institutional mechanisms in place.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
7.1 Consideration of learning from CFGORRP in the other projects to be developed/ implemented by Government of Nepal and UNDP
[Added: 2020/01/06]
Government of Nepal- Particularly Department of Hydrology and Meteorology under Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation and Department of Forests and Soil Conservations / Ministry of Forests and Environment and UNDP 2020/12 Initiated Upcoming LDCF/GEF funded project has considered linkages of upstream and downstream with livelihood component built on it.
8. Recommendation:

Flood risk mapping and increased lead time using NWP models for EWS should be done. Rapid damage mapping for response could enhance flood response and recovery in the Terai area.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM has started NWP models to provide three days weather forecasts, particularly the parameters such as precipitation, wind and temperature, covering whole Nepal.  When all the hydro-met stations are automatized, the NWP products will be more reliable and effective for disaster preparedness with relatively longer lead time for early warning system.

Post Disaster Need Assessment for major disasters including floods, landslides, earthquake is in practice for effective recovery and rapid assessment. In addition, cluster approach is also practiced for different stages of DRM as needed.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
8.1 Regular modelling to update the NWP for longer lead time for effective EWS
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2020/12 Initiated DHM’s home page has NWP special page for public information
8.2 Basin based Flood Risk Mapping to increase lead time for EWS ( Major basins- Gandaki, Koshi, Karnali)
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2020/12 Initiated DHM and other development partners through various projects
9. Recommendation:

The river systems in the Terai provide a source of irrigation for the local communities. In some areas, construction of embankments has obstructed the irrigation system. Embankments should be integrated with the drainage and irrigation infrastructure.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and partially agreed

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
9.1 Consideration of learning of CFGORRP in upcoming interventions
[Added: 2020/01/06]
Government of Nepal- Particularly Department of Hydrology and Meteorology under Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation and Department of Forests and Soil Conservations / Ministry of Forests and Environment and UNDP 2020/12 Initiated
10. Recommendation:

The ‘Build Back Better’ culture/making community could be adopted in flood prone areas following the Sendai framework for DRR and UNISDR making settlement resilience of disaster risk reduction

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

Government of Nepal has been doing for Post Disaster Need Assessment for major disasters for effective recovery and rapid assessment using IRA and MIRA have been in practice for response and recovery and this practice is aimed  to promote ‘Build Back Better’ approach for all kinds of post disaster scenario.  The Post Disaster Recovery Framework is also in place to be guide the Build Back Better approach.

Government of Nepal has been reporting to UNISDR on the progress on the targets of Sendai Framework of DRR regularly.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
10.1 Regular reporting on the progress on the targets of Sendai Framework of DRR
[Added: 2020/01/06]
Government of Nepal , in the leadership of Ministry of Home Affairs 2020/12 Initiated The focus of DHM would be on Target 7: Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030.
11. Recommendation:

In order to ensure sustainability of the project effects and to strengthen its institutional base, exit workshops should be conducted with relevant stakeholders for documenting and sharing project achievements, its institutional basis, and the works to be done at the local level as well. This could ensure asset management and ownership of resources.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM/ CFGORRP has a clear exit strategy which has been endorsed by Project Executive Board. Sharing and lesson learn workshop was organized inviting all the relevant government institutions and other stakeholders. The knowledge products such as Best Practices, Lessons and Success Stories, Handbook on Imja Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Management, User Manual of Imja Hydro-Meteorological and Early Warning System, Project Completion Report,  Sediment Monitoring Protocol  for Churia Originating River Systems have been distributed in soft and hard copy for the participants with  very clear presentations.

The exit strategy has clearly mentioned the roles and responsibilities of the local government, community members including task forces, district level agencies and the federal level government to ensure ownership of resources and sustainability of the initiatives.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
11.1 Updating Exit Strategy and organizing Lesson Learned Workshop
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM and UNDP- CFGORRP 2018/12 Completed Done at national and local levels
11.2 Integrate / establish linkages of Community Based Tasks Forces with existing local government or community institutions of national park
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2020/12 Initiated Discussion with Local Municipality and Sagarmatha National Park has been progressed.
11.3 Documentation of project knowledge products- video, images and other reports and uploading in the website.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2019/03 Completed Knowledge products are available – both in hard copy and soft copy
12. Recommendation:

Asset management and ownership of resources is important in this type of inter-agency programs. An inter-agency Letter of Agreement for resource handover and maintenance would ensure sustainability of the project.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06]

Relevant and Agreed

As per the decision of the Project Executive Board, all the project assets have been handed over to the Government of Nepal, more specifically to DHM and DSCWM.  The transfer of vehicles would take time as the Government has to clear the process including payment of applicable taxes. A handover event was also organized at the local level in which the handover of the assets and their responsibilities were clearly discussed.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology will clear all applicable taxes.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed 2 4WD vans and 4 Motorcycles are being handed over to DHM and 2 Motorcycles to Department of Forests and Soil Conservation ( DoFSC).

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