Terminal Evaluation of Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project (CFGORRP)

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Evaluation Plan:
2018-2022, Nepal
Evaluation Type:
Final Project
Planned End Date:
11/2018
Completion Date:
11/2019
Status:
Completed
Management Response:
Yes
Evaluation Budget(US $):
30,000

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Title Terminal Evaluation of Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project (CFGORRP)
Atlas Project Number: 00069781
Evaluation Plan: 2018-2022, Nepal
Evaluation Type: Final Project
Status: Completed
Completion Date: 11/2019
Planned End Date: 11/2018
Management Response: Yes
Focus Area:
  • 1. Resilience
  • 2. Others
Corporate Outcome and Output (UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021)
  • 1. Output 3.3.1 Evidence-based assessment and planning tools and mechanisms applied to enable implementation of gender-sensitive and risk-informed prevention and preparedness to limit the impact of natural hazards and pandemics and promote peaceful, just and inclusive societies
SDG Goal
  • Goal 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
SDG Target
  • 13.1 Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries
  • 13.2 Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning
Evaluation Budget(US $): 30,000
Source of Funding: Project Budget
Evaluation Expenditure(US $): 40,000
Joint Programme: No
Joint Evaluation: No
Evaluation Team members:
Name Title Nationality
Bapon Fakhruddin
Govinda Basnet
GEF Evaluation: Yes
GEF Project Title: Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project
Evaluation Type: Terminal Evaluation
Focal Area: Climate Change
Project Type: FSP
GEF Phase: GEF-5
GEF Project ID: 4551
PIMS Number: 4657
Key Stakeholders: UNDP, Ministry of Environment, Science, and Technology (MoEST), Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Water Induced Disaster Management, Ministry of Home Affairs
Countries: NEPAL
Lessons
Findings
1.

3 Findings

3.1 Project Design / Formulation

This section assesses the quality of the project design as reflected in the original project document, including its identification and formulation. The evaluation team reviewed the mid-term evaluation’s analysis of the project design and formulation and confirmed the initial findings. In addition, the evaluators observed that no major changes or modifications have been made to the project document since the mid-term evaluation. As described earlier, the project was designed taking into account Nepal´s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), and was also aligned with the UNDAF as well as the Country Programme Action Plan (CPAP), 2013-2017.

The TE team made the following observations related to the project design: • The project blended hardware (infrastructure) and software (community capacity) components, which was a major strength of the project design. • The two components of the project were diverse and had two distinct features. There was little complementarity between the two components. • The TE team recognized that the design stage of the project was more service providerdriven and did not involve the beneficiaries (e.g. communities). However, targeted communities were involved in designing detailed plans within the broader initial plan. For example, they were engaged in vulnerability and capacity analysis, prioritization of activities, and designing the implementation plan. • The project did not adopt the watershed management approaches comprehensively in reducing flood risk in the Terai district. Few conservation activities were designed in upstream areas. However, to a limited extent, it was addressed by constructing sedimentation traps in upstream of tributaries of the Ratu river. • A comprehensive watershed management system for one river basin could set a good example for practice in other basins. • The project reflects national and local priorities and strategies in the design stage based on NAPA. Although relevant stakeholders were appropriately involved and participated in the project, the TE team recognized that greater implementation-level inputs from the DWIDM and the DSCWM were essential for sustainability of sediment control and stabilization of hazard-prone slopes and river banks through structural and non-structural mechanisms (Output 2.1).


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Natural Disaster Programme Synergy Programme/Project Design Results-Based Management Risk Management Technical Support

2.

3 Findings (continuation)

3.1.3 Lessons from other relevant projects (e.g., same focal area) incorporated into project design As the project executing body the DHM had experienced the implementation of a GLOF risk reduction project in the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake in 2000, and thus drew upon some of the lessons from that experience. The lessons from Tsho Rolpa constituted the baseline for the design process for Component 1. Although the scale of operation differed in Tsho Rolpa and Imja, the experience provided important learning. As a learning from Tsho Rolpa, this project strongly emphasized community engagement which ensured ownership of the initiative contributing towards sustainability. Component 2, drawing from the experience of other Community-Based Disaster Risk Management Programmes that UNDP has implemented, strongly emphasized community engagement focusing on different components of disaster risk management in order to make the programme comprehensive. The specific activities were designed in participation of local communities and implemented through committees such as the LDRMC and the CDMC. It also drew upon the learning from the work of the People’s Embankment Program of the DWIDM in the Terai districts such as Mahottari, Saptari and from the soil conservation and watershed management program of the DSCWM. The President Terai Chure Madhesh Conservation Development Program also works in the districts of Component 2 on soil conservation and watershed management. The sediment control activities in the upstream of the Ratu River system were linked with the soil conservation initiative of these institutions. The project also drew upon lessons from the community-based early warning system of the ICIMOD and other institutions. The community-based early warning system was implemented in technical partnership with the ICIMOD.


Tag: Effectiveness Sustainability Global Environment Facility fund Programme Synergy Results-Based Management Strategic Positioning Country Government Capacity Building Technical Support Civil Societies and NGOs

3.

3.1.5 Replication approach The project document mentioned greater potential for upscaling and replication across Nepal covering more GLOF and flood risk areas, unlike the more costly structural adaptation measures. As mentioned earlier,six glacial lakes have been identified as high risk and Imja Lake is the second highest (ICIMOD, 2011). The lessons from Imja Lake could be drawn upon by other GLOF risk management projects. Replication is further justified given the project’s emphasis on capacity development, which promotes knowledge transfer and skill development through training workshops at national, district, and community levels. Outcomes 1 and 2 focus particularly on district, national, and international learning and knowledge transfer including dissemination of knowledge, experiences and lessons learned with key stakeholders and the public through a range of communication media.


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Effectiveness Sustainability Partnership Programme Synergy Strategic Positioning Capacity Building Operational Services

4.

3.1.8 Management arrangements

The project was nationally executed as per the UNDP National Implementation Modality Guidelines. The DHM was the executive body for project implementation and was responsible for establishing the PMU. The overall project management at the central and field levels are shown in Figure 4: Project management.


Tag: Implementation Modality Project and Programme management Country Government

5.

3.2 Project Implementation

3.2.1 Adaptive management (changes to the project design and project outputs during implementation)

The project’s logical framework was not changed during the period of implementation even when there were periods of critical situations (earthquake, economic embargo, and delay in contract for undertaking lake lowering work). 

The involvement of the Nepalese Army in water level lowering in Imja Lake ensured the successful completion and also strengthened the capacity of the national institution. The project had an elaborate system of project management but unlike Component 2, there was no dedicated staff for the project in Component 1 at the field level. This had an impact on the effective implementation of activities and field level coordination in Component 1. Implementation of the project activities was adversely affected by the economic embargo in late 2015 and early 2016 in both the components. Political disturbance in the districts of Component 2 also affected the implementation of the project. Financial constraints regarding construction work emerged during the economic embargo. Adaptive management encouraged cutting some other component activities so that the focus would remain on the construction work. The reduction of facilities for safe shelters was a critical result of unforeseen circumstances but also a critical example of adaptive management. As the cost of the lake lowering activities increased by 0.8 million USD because of the delay, UNDP/TRAC provided an additional fund of USD 319,000 to contribute to the undertaking of other activities. The fund was provided during November 2016 and activities were revised accordingly.


Tag: Capacity Building Effectiveness Partnership Results-Based Management Country Government

6.

3.2.4 Project Finance

The project followed the NEX guidelines. Most of the observations of Audit for improvement were categorized low to medium in risk level. These observations related to obtaining PAN/ VAT bills, delay in depositing tax at the government, booking of expenses under improper heading, delay in settlement of advances. For the year 2015, the audit report observed the delay in completion of activities in the planned time. However, the PMU had valid reasons such as earthquake, political unrest in Terai, and the economic embargo for the delay in implementation of planned activities. 

The total project finance was 7.2 million USD as per the Project Document. The status of the project finance is shown in the following Table 3-4. Table 3-4: Status of the project finance. 

The comment to explain the variance between the planned and actual expenditures is not addressed adequately. The project implementation report mentions that an additional USD 319,000 was provided from UNDP/TRAC to meet the additional expenses incurred due to an increase in the price of construction materials during the economic crisis period. The total project budget is summarized here. Total allocated resources: 7,568,430 USD • GEF-LDCF 6,300,000 USD • UNDP (in-cash) 949,430 USD • UNDP/TRAC (additional) 319,000 USD Figure 5 shows the outcome-wise expenditure of the project. The cumulative GL delivery against total approved amount (in pro-doc) was 91.98%. The cumulative disbursements of the finance are shown in Figure 6.

The Pro-doc also claimed co-finance of 19 million USD as leverage to the project. Co-finance (kind – parallel co-financing in USD) • UNDP (CDRMP) 7,682,900 • NRRC 2,857,811 • Govt Nepal/DWIDP 7,000,000 • USAID-ADAPT ASIA 157,369 • ICIMOD 1,705,000 Total Co-finance 19,403,080


Tag: Efficiency Implementation Modality Operational Efficiency

7.

3.2.5 Monitoring and evaluation M&E design at the project start up:

The design of the monitoring and evaluation systems at entry relied on the standard UNDP requirements, including annual Project Implementation Reviews and the project’s Mid-Term Evaluations completed on time. In addition, the progress of the project was monitored on an ongoing basis by the project team for regular PEB, PSC and TAG meetings. The project appointed a dedicated M&E officer to ensure regular M&E activities of the project.

M&E Plan Implementation: The M&E plan had a total of 102,000 USD for strictly maintaining the quality of work and outputs at different stages such as ARR/PIR, quarterly progress reports, project board meetings, quarterly ATLAS QPR , Mid-Term evaluation, Final evaluation, etc. The MTR did not put forward any recommendations on M&E despite the challenges of procurement issues with regard to major construction work. In interviews during the final evaluation mission, the executing agency and stakeholders expressed their satisfaction with the way the PEB had worked and ensured that they receive relevant and timely information throughout the project implementation to perform their expected duties. The GEF Operational Focal Point, although not available for discussion during the evaluation mission, had maintained systematic oversight of the project implementation through the annual PIRs, including comments and recommendations on project progress.


Tag: Monitoring and Evaluation Policies & Procedures Project and Programme management

8.

3.3 Project Results

3.3.1 Overall results (attainment of objectives)

The Project had two major components/outcomes. Component 1 aimed at reducing GLOF risks arising from Imja Lake in Solukhumbu district. Component 2 aimed at reducing human and material losses from recurrent flooding events from Churia-originated river systems in four flood prone Terai districts. 

Component 1: The project has delivered on reducing the imminent risk posed by the Imja Glacial Lake to over 12,000 vulnerable people living downstream of the Imja Dudh Koshi river valley. Imja Lake has been lowered by 3.4 meters and as a result reduced a number of high GLOF risk lakes listed by ICIMOD in 2010, from 21 to 19. Only two glacial lakes have been lowered in Nepal in the past decades, Imja Lake being one. The DHM had earlier worked to lower the water level in Tsho Rolpa and this time with UNDP/GEF support, worked on lowering the water level in Imja Lake. Furthermore, the water level lowering technique has been verified by an independent environmental audit as being fully compliant with environmental and social safeguards. The audit report fully acknowledges that the project has directly contributed towards the reduction of the GLOF risk to people’s lives and assets and that in the process no environmentally damaging measures (such as use of explosives, construction garbage on site etc.) had been taken. A successful example has been set where capacity building of national and local institutions such as the DHM, the Nepalese Army and development partners hastaken place to enable them to join hands to lower GLOF risks, which can be used for future glacial lake lowering measures. Compared to the previous effort of Tsho Rolpa Lake lowering, the Imja has set a precedent of a cost-effective method that also safeguards compliance. However, due to the Gorkha earthquake the project team had to make necessary adjustments in field work, including carrying out additional ground studies that unexpectedly increased the total cost of the component. In addition to actual risk reduction through a glacial lake level lowering, the project operationalized the automated early warning system. The system operated by the DHM now consists of hydro-met and GLOF sensors and automatic sirens in six major vulnerable settlements using a decision support system that uses 10 GLOF detection sensors to verify events as well as the Iridium communication system to trigger warnings. The DHM now receives data and information through its web portal www.hydrology.gov.np and is able to communicate GLOF risk warnings to NEOC/ MoHA. This means that the DHM now has a functional system of informing vulnerable communities and tourists/porters in the region with regard to risk of Imja GLOF events using SMS messages through Ncell and Nepal Telecom, the major mobile service providers in Nepal. The Task forces (for light search and rescue, first aid, and community-based early warning) formed and strengthening of evacuation centers have all contributed in reducing the risks of GLOF events in the targeted areas. 


Tag: Climate Change Adaptation Disaster Risk assessments Disaster Risk Reduction Natural Disaster Effectiveness Local Governance Results-Based Management Technology Vulnerable

9.

3.3.2 Relevance

The key criteria for assessing project relevance have been defined in the UNDP guidance for terminal evaluations to understand the extent a project design is aligned with the objectives of international, regional and national policies and strategies and whether results outlined in the logical framework are relevant to actors and beneficiaries in project areas. 

The project was funded by the LDCF after the endorsement of NAPA in 2010. The project contributes to NAPA’s Combined Profile 3 “Community-based Disaster Management for Facilitating Climate Adaptation” and Combined Profile 4 “GLOF Monitoring and Disaster Risk Reduction” with regard to imminent GLOF risks at Imja Lake in Solukhumbhu district and catastrophic flooding from Churia-originated rivers.

The trend of rising global temperature due to climate change poses an increasing risk of GLOF originating in the High Mountains due to glacial retreat and expansion of the glacial lakes. Similarly, the entire country is highly prone to earthquakes thereby increasing the risk of GLOF due to the weak geomorphology of the High Himalayan region. Furthermore, flash floods and catastrophic floods in Churia-originated Rivers caused by extreme rainfall events in the Terai pose high risks to human lives and properties. The 2017 flash floods critically affected the Terai region and brought forward important lessons for the community to test the early warning and emergency response capacity. This time the downstream community in India has also benefitted from the early warning system developed under the project. The project purpose of CFGORRP/DHM has been highly relevant and appreciated by every actor and beneficiary interviewed by the TE team.

The project was aligned with UNDAF and CPAP and contributed to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) target number 13- Climate Action and target 6-Clean Water and Sanitation. UNDAF Outcome 7: People living in areas vulnerable to climate change and disasters have benefited from improved risk management and are more resilient to hazard-related shocks. UNDAF/CPAP Output 7.1: Government officials at all levels have the capacity to lead and implement systems and policies to effectively manage risks and adapt to climate change. UNDAF/CPAP Output 7.3.2: Water level in Imja Glacier Lake reduced by 3 meters and risk mitigation measures adopted in 4 most vulnerable Terai districts. The project has also been relevant to the needs and priorities of Nepal in following the Sendai Framework for DRR (target 7, establishment of early warning system for multi-hazards by 2030). It has enabled the GLOF Automated Early Warning System (AEWS) and its integration into the DHM system through the web portal. Critical vulnerable communities receives early warning of GLOF from Imja outburst by siren alarms. The flash flood early warning system is also semi-automated but further improvement could be made in the future.


Tag: Climate Change Adaptation Disaster Risk Reduction Vulnerable Relevance SDG Integration

10.

3.3.3 Effectiveness

Effectiveness is the study of result attainment and the relative importance of a project’s set of results in achieving its purpose. The achievements of expected outcomes and objectives measured in the progress of indicators are the key to measuring the effectiveness of the project. The logical framework (LF) was used as part of project reporting and as a management tool to update assumptions and empower adaptive management. The project purpose as stated in the logical framework was achieved in terms of the results as specified in the ‘project completion report 2017’.


Tag: Disaster Risk assessments Natural Disaster Effectiveness Risk Management

11.

3.3.4 Efficiency

Efficiency analysis considers how well and timely activities and inputs were used to produce physical outputs and value for money. 

Management Efficiency

The Project Executive Board (PEB) and the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) enhanced technical inputs and provided strategic guidance to the project (19 PEB). The Project Steering Committee (PSC) was in place and met twice to provide policy level guidance. The TE team recognized MoHA’s representation in the PEB which helped enhance institutionalization of the DRR initiatives. The level of monitoring and evaluation in the project was very good. There were baselines reported for key logical framework indicators and counterfactuals in operation. This attribution helped in the validation of project outcomes. An earthquake, economic embargo and procurement process delayed the construction activities of the Imja Lake lowering project. Risk was underestimated in the LF. UNDP also came up with a Plan A and Plan B in the project design. Completion of the project within these limitations represented a highly efficient management system followed by the DHM.

Technical Efficiency

The Imja Lake lowering technical studies and design works were of high quality and were peer reviewed by well recognized experts. The EPA-SPCC guideline and environmental audit represent highly efficient work on the lake lowering. The design of evacuation shelters in the Solukhumbu area did not meet the standard safe evacuation location criteria, nor was any shelter management plan in place. Budget deficiency may have affected this component. 

Financial Reporting

Financial reporting is well acceptable. Cumulative GL delivery against expected delivery as of 2017 is 91.98%. The MTR shows co-financing as of April 2016 to be 19 million. An additional 3M was recently approved for the NAP assessment under GCF to support other high GLOF risk assessment. Overall, the quality of the outputs is satisfactory, and they represent good value for money when one considers the difficulties faced in the project implementation period. The annual district plans of three to five targeted project districts had incorporated budgeted flood risk preparedness activities but were not observed on the ground. However, VDC level disaster risk management fund was found to have been allocated.

3.3.4.1 Efficiency rating Satisfactory (S) 


Tag: Efficiency Monitoring and Evaluation Operational Efficiency Results-Based Management

12.

3.3.5 Country ownership

As discussed under project relevance, the project design with the key strategy for GLOF risk reduction and community-based disaster risk management was consistent with the key strategy documents of NAPA and national disaster risk reduction goals. The important benefits of the project in terms of increased capacity on GLOF early warning system and CBDRR in general were also unanimously emphasized by all stakeholders interviewed by the TE team.


Tag: Disaster risk management Disaster Risk Reduction Ownership Partnership Country Government

13.

3.3.6 Mainstreaming

The UNDP Guidance for Terminal Evaluation calls for an assessment of the extent the project has achieved the requirement of “mainstreaming other UNDP priorities, including poverty alleviation, improved governance, the prevention and recovery from natural disasters, and women's empowerment”.


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Vulnerable Gender Equality Gender Mainstreaming Women's Empowerment Communication Knowledge management

14.

3.3.7 Sustainability

For sustainability, the GEF guidelines establish four areas for considering risks to sustainability, each of which should be separately evaluated and then rated as to the likelihood and extent that they will impede sustainability of the project outcomes. These risks include: 1) financial risks, 2) socio-economic risks, 3) institutional framework and governance risks; and 4) environmental risks. It is also to be noted that the assessment below is primarily based on the situation analysis in the project area and project document support to the TE Team.

Financial resources In the aftermath of the Gorkha Earthquake 2015 followed by the economic blockade by India including the political disturbance in Terai during 2015, the country faced tremendous stresses in various sectors. The project felt the impact of such crises and the cost of Imja Lake Lowering construction works shot up an additional USD 0.8 million from the earlier estimated cost of USD 2.4 million. This had implications on the planned activities and the project had to realign and cut down some activities to meet the shortfall. Hence, plans for 2016 and 2017 were prioritized and downsized to meet the budget deficit. The VAT return helped to offset some of the deficit. An additional fund of $ 319,000 was provided from UNDP/TRAC source during November 2016 and activities were revised accordingly which smoothened the efforts to some extent. The project initiated a process for VAT refund from the Inland Revenue Department (IRD) against the expenses made on the Imja construction works. After the first instalment of VAT refund of US $ 141,129 was received, the second tranche of VAT refund of USD 183,628 was received during June 2017. From this VAT refund, the project undertook prioritized activities under Component 2 that were geared towards the sustainability of the project achievements. To sustain the efforts of Imja activities, NAP has recently been approved by GCF. The rest of the high risk GLOF activities will be carried out under GCF. The local level organizations will face the risk of meeting financial arragnements to sustain the activities like river embankment in component 2 and early warning systems in the both the components. Hence, the financial sustainability is rated as Moderately Likely (ML). 


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Sustainability Global Environment Facility fund Gender Equality Gender Mainstreaming Women's Empowerment Operational Efficiency Policies & Procedures Quality Assurance Risk Management

15.

3.3.8 Impact

The project took a pioneer approach by bringing together community outreach integrating science, institution and society. This made a real difference at community level as evidenced by the impacts. The EWS was found very effective in reducing the loss suffered from the 2017 flood in downstream communities. The embankment constructed in the four districts worked well in the 2017 floods but the TE team was unable to make any cost benefit assessment in terms of savings amount of the community due to the EWS. The local community, however, expressed their satisfaction with the information provided by the DHM. 


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Impact Gender Mainstreaming Integration Policies & Procedures Jobs and Livelihoods Technology

16.

3.3.7 Sustainability (Continuation from Finding 14)

Technical and Managerial Thorough technical assessments during implementation, enhanced technical capacities of responsible parties and a strong institutional basis in Component 1 would ensure the sustainability of the project’s effects. Sustainability of Hydro-met monitoring stations and the Automatic Early Warning System was the key concern of the project intervention. One of the options for this is to involve the hydro-power companies of the of Dudhkoshi river basin. An initial consultative meeting with hydropower basin was held to discuss the possibility of collaboration for sustainable functioning of the system. The meeting yielded a clear indication of cost sharing if the hydrological data requirement for hydropower design, licensing and post installation safety could be provided. Hydropower producers are ready to work with the departments concerned such as the Department of Energy Development and the DHM towards getting quality data and to share part of the operation and maintenance cost of the EWS. The network, technical capacity and institutional linkages that have been developed will make the community-based early warning system sustainable in Component 2. The sustainability of the sediment monitoring and control initiatives will also depend upon future programs within the DHM and other agencies to further maintain and expand the sediment database using the Sediment Monitoring Protocol that has been developed by the project, and to apply the information and analyses to river basin management strategies. The process for a national approach to sedimentation issues is uncertain, although efforts to continue with this work are under discussion with the President ChureTerai Madhesh Conservation Development Board. The outcomes are Likely (L).


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Natural Disaster Environment Policy Effectiveness Sustainability Knowledge management Technical Support National Institutions

17.

3.2 Project Implementation (Continuation from Finding 5)

3.2.3 Feedback from M&E activities used for adaptive management 

After the inception phase, a clear framework was developed spelling out the roles and responsibilities for different M&E functions, with particular emphasis on the Annual Project Implementation Reviews (PIRs) and related documentation, the Annual Project Report (APR) as well as midterm and terminal evaluations planned in the project. The MTR did not provide any strong recommendations on M&E, although there were a few important findings on weaknesses in construction work delay and risks to the implementation of the project’s major components. The MTR mentioned “the inclusion of AMAT indicators for GEF programme level monitoring diverges from the core results expected of the project and provides only generic indication of expected project results. It would have been more useful to focus the Results Framework around a distinct project theory of change rather than having project monitoring pre-programmed by the AMAT tracking tool which has a very different purpose. The layering of AMAT over the project design has a way of reducing the M&E accuracy at a project level”.


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Natural Disaster Global Environment Facility fund Government Cost-sharing Monitoring and Evaluation Project and Programme management Results-Based Management Civil Societies and NGOs National Institutions

18.

Effectiveness (Continuation from Finding 10)

Component 2

The flood early warning system for the downstream area is working. The system, which is semi-automatic /manually operated in some places, was very helpful in the massive flood of August 2017. Not only had it helped in saving lives and properties in downstream communities in the country but also across the border in India. A network has been put in place with institutional linkages helping to enhance the effectiveness of the early warning system. The 7.4 km flood proofing drainage system, maintained by the community people, and the drinking water system are effective in Mahottari and Siraha districts in draining flood water. Thirty-five elevated tube wells were constructed and are effectively used by the communities, some mostly during floods and others all the time. Local communities have assigned the responsibility of managing these elevated tube wells to specific community members which indicate the effectiveness of the service of these initiatives as well as ownership of the communities. As many as 59,062 vulnerable community members including 27,682 women i.e. 100% of the community people living in the eight targeted VDCs have benefited from increased access to potable drinking water during floods and inundations with access to elevated tube wells (ETWs).


Tag: Disaster Risk Reduction Natural Disaster Natural Resouce management Effectiveness Technology National Institutions Vulnerable

Recommendations
1

Component 1

Recommendation 1. Floods from moraine-dammed lake failures can have long standing effects not only on riverine landscapes but also on mountain communities due to the high intensity (i.e. great depth and high velocities) and damaging capacity of glacial lake outburst floods. Policy, strategy, and guidelines are essential for GLOF risk management. More research of sound scientific basis need to be developed for predicting glacier response to climate change along with clear criteria for prioritizing mitigation efforts.

2

Component 1

Recomendation 2. The risk of GLOFs cannot be completely eliminated unless the lakes are fully drained. In fact, reinforced dams and partially drained lakes have produced GLOFs. The non-feasibility of draining all hazardous lakes calls for the development of integral approaches to reduce the GLOF hazard and risk. This includes soft (land use planning) and hard (geotechnical works) mitigation measures in the frame of coordinated plans including actions before, during, and after the emergency.

3

Component 1

Recommendation 3. Glacial lake evolution is complex, driven in part by sediment deposition and reduced numbers of surrounding ice cliffs. Geophysical tools for measuring subsurface properties of glacial lakes and moraine dams could be monitored on a regular basis. This could enable understanding subsurface characteristics.

4

Component 1

Recommendation 4. The implementing agency (e.g. DHM) could consider the risk and assumptions of similar project designs and the feasibility of conducting construction works in a remote, high altitude area, as well as a procurement plan.

5

Component 1

Recommendation 5. The DHM could share the success stories of the Imja Lake experience with other mountainous countries and apply a similar technology and management for other high risk glacial lakes.

6

Component 1

Recommendation 6. The evacuation centers, especially in Component 1, differed widely in terms of convenience of access, area of open space, and facilities. Standardization of safe evacuation shelters is needed along with a proper shelter management plan.

7

Component 2

Recommendation 7. In any future design of flood risk management projects, the Integrated Watershed Management approach should be adopted. A livelihood component and pro-poor recovery should also be an integral part of the future design.

8

Component 2

Recommendation 8. Flood risk mapping and increased lead time using NWP models for EWS should be done. Rapid damage mapping for response could enhance flood response and recovery in the Terai area.

9

Component 2

Recommendation 9. The river systems in the Terai provide a source of irrigation for the local communities. In some areas, construction of embankments has obstructed the irrigation system. Embankments should be integrated with the drainage and irrigation infrastructure.

10

Component 2

Recommendation 10. The ‘Build Back Better’ culture/making community could be adopted in flood prone areas following the Sendai framework for DRR and UNISDR making settlement resilience of disaster risk reduction

11

Component 2

Recommendation 11. In order to ensure sustainability of the project effects and to strengthen its institutional base, exit workshops should be conducted with relevant stakeholders for documenting and sharing project achievements, its institutional basis, and the works to be done at the local level as well. This could ensure asset management and ownership of resources.

12

Component 2

Recommendation 12. Asset management and ownership of resources is important in this type of inter-agency programs. An inter-agency Letter of Agreement for resource handover and maintenance would ensure sustainability of the project.

1. Recommendation:

Component 1

Recommendation 1. Floods from moraine-dammed lake failures can have long standing effects not only on riverine landscapes but also on mountain communities due to the high intensity (i.e. great depth and high velocities) and damaging capacity of glacial lake outburst floods. Policy, strategy, and guidelines are essential for GLOF risk management. More research of sound scientific basis need to be developed for predicting glacier response to climate change along with clear criteria for prioritizing mitigation efforts.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

With the new federal governance system, Nepal is setting up institutions at federal, province and local government for effective climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction approach. GLOF is one of the priority hazards that DHM is mandated for its study, assessment, preparedness and mitigation measures. DHM with it’s new institutional set up, Snow and Glacier Section will take this recommendation forward in the guidance of Director General and   UNDP will advocate for the policy set up as well as it’s implementation. The future projects (such as GCF, GEF) will also take this recommendation as potential activities of the project intervention.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
1.1 The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation has come up with new organization structure to smoothen the DHM’s actions and will update the O&M as required.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed New structure has linked multiple divisions within DHM for better cooperation within the organization.
1.2 DHM has prioritized research, monitoring on glacier and glacial lakes in its programme and budgeting.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed These recommendations go beyond the project's end.
2. Recommendation:

Component 1

Recomendation 2. The risk of GLOFs cannot be completely eliminated unless the lakes are fully drained. In fact, reinforced dams and partially drained lakes have produced GLOFs. The non-feasibility of draining all hazardous lakes calls for the development of integral approaches to reduce the GLOF hazard and risk. This includes soft (land use planning) and hard (geotechnical works) mitigation measures in the frame of coordinated plans including actions before, during, and after the emergency.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

UNDP and DHM have worked with ICIMOD to update the inventory of Glacial Lakes in Nepal, Tibet and India and identified the list of critical lakes which are potentially dangerous for outbursts. This would be a good reference document to prioritize the glacial lakes and glaciated basins for integrated approach for risk reduction and management considering the upstream and downstream linkages. In addition, UNDP is advocating for Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning (RSLUP) and some municipalities have been supported to prepare and implement the RSLUP considering some specific hazards such as earthquake etc. However, this is equally important to consider the GLOF as well. Multi-hazards Risk assessment based integrated watershed management planning has also been practiced in collaboration of UNDP and Government of Nepal. The existing network of Emergency Operation Centre has been very effective for taking actions to save lives and livelihoods.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
2.1 Preparation of Inventory of Glacial Lakes in Nepal and also of that of upstream which pose threats of GLOF in Nepal and identification of critical lakes
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2019/03 Completed This document has been extremely useful for identification of priority Glacial Lakes for GLOF Risk Reduction project for GCF Submission
2.2 Supporting Government of Nepal, particularly DHM with lake monitoring equipment and supporting community based institutions with post disaster response equipment – search and rescue , first aid etc.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2018/12 Completed DHM and Community groups will manage the equipment / tools for sustained use.
3. Recommendation:

Component 1

Recommendation 3. Glacial lake evolution is complex, driven in part by sediment deposition and reduced numbers of surrounding ice cliffs. Geophysical tools for measuring subsurface properties of glacial lakes and moraine dams could be monitored on a regular basis. This could enable understanding subsurface characteristics.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

Glacier and Glacial Lakes are more dynamic in nature in the context of Climate Change. Geo-physical changes may occur in the lake, parent glacier, hanging cliffs, moraines etc. which need to be monitored on a regular basis to understand the risks of GLOF. The increment in the volume of lake water, receding of the glaciers, strength of the end moraines etc. may change along the time. With the support of the project, DHM has been  provided  with lake monitoring equipment/ tools for regular monitoring of the lakes and DHM has also  allocated budget on annual basis for monitoring the lakes as well as the annual maintenance of the automatic weather stations.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
3.1 Regular monitoring of Glacial Lakes and the lake lowering structures
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed The equipment procured under the project have been useful.
3.2 Annual maintenance of Hydro-met stations
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed DHM has allocated funds for maintaining the hydro-met stations
4. Recommendation:

Component 1

Recommendation 4. The implementing agency (e.g. DHM) could consider the risk and assumptions of similar project designs and the feasibility of conducting construction works in a remote, high altitude area, as well as a procurement plan.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM in collaboration with UNDP is working on project formulation for GCF Submission on Climate Change induced disasters including GLOF and the learning of CFGORRP will be reflected in all aspects including project formulation, implementation, quality assurance, monitoring and sustainability in such remote and high altitude areas.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
4.1 Government of Nepal is formulating a proposal for GCF Submission and DHM as an Executive Entity, is leading the Project Formulation Technical Advisory Committee. The national priorities on GLOF Risk Reduction such as lake lowering or any other means to lower the lakes, installation of high altitude hydro-met stations, provision of technological advancement of modelling for forecasting and prediction for effective EWS are identified as key intervention areas.
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/11/29]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2022/12 Initiated The project formulation is progressing. The submission of the proposal is targeted for 2022 GCF Board. History
5. Recommendation:

Component 1

Recommendation 5. The DHM could share the success stories of the Imja Lake experience with other mountainous countries and apply a similar technology and management for other high risk glacial lakes.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM/UNDP- CFGORRP has published a good numbers of knowledge products of the project that includes Best Practices, Lessons and Success Stories, Handbook on Imja Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Management, User Manual of Imja Hydro-Meteorological and Early Warning System, Project Completion Report,  Sediment Monitoring Protocol  for Churia Originating River Systems, Children Stories  Book on environment and conservation including the stories in Climate Change and  GLOF etc. 

The success stories have been presented in various national and international workshops/ seminar including in Sikkim, Malasiya and one has been planned in Bhutan in year 2019.

DHM in collaboration with UNDP is working on project formulation for GCF Submission on Climate Change induced disasters including GLOF and the learning of CFGORRP will be reflected in all aspects including project formulation, implementation, quality assurance, monitoring and sustainability in such remote and high- altitude areas.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
5.2 Application of learning from the project while formulating the project for submission to relevant donors
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/11/29]
Government of Nepal- Particularly Department of Hydrology and Meteorology under Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation and Department of Forests and Soil Conservations / Ministry of Forests and Environment and UNDP. 2022/12 Initiated The project formulation is progressing. The submission of the proposal is targeted for 2022 GCF Board. History
5.1 Publication of knowledge products and sharing among the stakeholders in the workshop and using other modes/media
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/UNDP- CFGORRP 2018/12 Completed
6. Recommendation:

Component 1

Recommendation 6. The evacuation centers, especially in Component 1, differed widely in terms of convenience of access, area of open space, and facilities. Standardization of safe evacuation shelters is needed along with a proper shelter management plan.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

Evacuation shelter has to meet all the basic facilities requirements such as water and sanitation, safety and security, access to food and more attention has to be paid for physically disabled people, older ages, pregnant women and children. Each community for all kind of hazards risk should identify an evacuation route and shelter in a safer vicinity with the standard facilities that should fulfil basic requirements during shelter. National Disaster Response Framework -2013 is approved by the Government and will be revised as per the learning of 2015 Earthquake. Standardization of shelter is one of important aspects which meet the minimum requirement during the stay in shelter. The clusters approach has been in practice in which WASH, SHELTER among others are the key during various stages of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
6.1 Updating the National Disaster Response Framework
[Added: 2020/01/06]
Government of Nepal / Ministry of Home Affairs 2019/06 Completed Available in Govt. Website – drrportal.gov.np
6.2 Mock Drill Practice for safe evacuation and shelter management
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/07]
Government of Nepal and Communities 2020/12 Completed The National Disaster Response Framework -2013 (NDRF) has been revised and approved by the Government of Nepal in 2018 with the learning of 2015 Gorkha Earthquake as well as 2017 Floods in Nepal. Nepal Risk Reduction and Management Authority ( NDRRMA) has begun its action. The framework has clearly mentioned the guidelines for search and rescue to be handled by NDRRMA. History
7. Recommendation:

Component 2

Recommendation 7. In any future design of flood risk management projects, the Integrated Watershed Management approach should be adopted. A livelihood component and pro-poor recovery should also be an integral part of the future design.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

UNDP has been advocating for consideration of Integrated Watershed Management Approach (IWMA) since long and has implemented a number of projects considering upstream and downstream linkages in collaboration of Government of Nepal.  The joint upcoming projects of UNDP and Government of Nepal are also formulated in the principle of IWMA and will be implemented accordingly.

It is a proven fact that the livelihood component of any CCA and DRR intervention ensures the participation of the local community members for its implementation and also this ensures sustainability of the intervention with proper institutional mechanisms in place.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
7.1 Consideration of learning from CFGORRP in the other projects to be developed/ implemented by Government of Nepal and UNDP
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/07]
Government of Nepal- Particularly Department of Hydrology and Meteorology under Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation and Department of Forests and Soil Conservations / Ministry of Forests and Environment and UNDP 2020/12 Completed UNDP and Government of Nepal -Ministry of Forests and Environment – Department of Forests and Soil Conservation has initiated the implementation of the project on “Developing Climate Resilient Livelihoods in the Vulnerable Watershed in Nepal” after approval from the GEF. The project has considered linkages of upstream and downstream of Lower Dudhkoshi watershed with livelihood component built on it and will be implemented for next 4 years History
8. Recommendation:

Component 2

Recommendation 8. Flood risk mapping and increased lead time using NWP models for EWS should be done. Rapid damage mapping for response could enhance flood response and recovery in the Terai area.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM has started NWP models to provide three days weather forecasts, particularly the parameters such as precipitation, wind and temperature, covering whole Nepal.  When all the hydro-met stations are automatized, the NWP products will be more reliable and effective for disaster preparedness with relatively longer lead time for early warning system.

Post Disaster Need Assessment for major disasters including floods, landslides, earthquake is in practice for effective recovery and rapid assessment. In addition, cluster approach is also practiced for different stages of DRM as needed.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
8.2 Basin based Flood Risk Mapping to increase lead time for EWS ( Major basins- Gandaki, Koshi, Karnali)
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/11/29]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2022/12 Initiated The project formulation is progressing. The submission of the proposal is targeted for 2022 GCF Board. History
8.1 Regular modelling to update the NWP for longer lead time for effective EWS
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/07]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2020/12 Completed The numerical model output is simulated from Weather Research & Forecasting - Environmental Modelling System (WRF-EMS). WRF-EMS is a complete, full-physics, state-of-the-science numerical weather prediction (NWP) package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM). At MFD, The model is run in the nested mode with horizontal resolution of 12 and 4 km in outer and inner domain respectively. The model is run four times a day using GFS global model data at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC as the initial conditions. Both 12 km and 4 km simulations are run for the next three and half days (84 hours) but only high resolution (4 km) forecast for selected variables (precipitation, Temperature, Wind, Wind Gust) are made available from + 12 hr to +84 hr at temporal resolution of 1 hr. This is updated every 6 hours as new forecast becomes available. History
9. Recommendation:

Component 2

Recommendation 9. The river systems in the Terai provide a source of irrigation for the local communities. In some areas, construction of embankments has obstructed the irrigation system. Embankments should be integrated with the drainage and irrigation infrastructure.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and partially agreed

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
9.1 Consideration of learning of CFGORRP in upcoming interventions
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/07]
Government of Nepal- Particularly Department of Hydrology and Meteorology under Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation and Department of Forests and Soil Conservations / Ministry of Forests and Environment and UNDP 2020/12 Completed Nepal -Ministry of Forests and Environment – Department of Forests and Soil Conservation has initiated the implementation of the project on “Developing Climate Resilient Livelihoods in the Vulnerable Watershed in Nepal” after approval from the GEF. The project has considered linkages of upstream and downstream of Lower Dudhkoshi watershed with livelihood component built on it and will be implemented for next 4 years . History
10. Recommendation:

Component 2

Recommendation 10. The ‘Build Back Better’ culture/making community could be adopted in flood prone areas following the Sendai framework for DRR and UNISDR making settlement resilience of disaster risk reduction

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

Government of Nepal has been doing for Post Disaster Need Assessment for major disasters for effective recovery and rapid assessment using IRA and MIRA have been in practice for response and recovery and this practice is aimed  to promote ‘Build Back Better’ approach for all kinds of post disaster scenario.  The Post Disaster Recovery Framework is also in place to be guide the Build Back Better approach.

Government of Nepal has been reporting to UNISDR on the progress on the targets of Sendai Framework of DRR regularly.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
10.1 Regular reporting on the progress on the targets of Sendai Framework of DRR
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/07]
Government of Nepal , in the leadership of Ministry of Home Affairs 2020/12 Completed The government of Nepal ( Ministry of Home Affairs) has been regularly reporting to UNDRR on the progress to achieve the targets set to achieve on Sendai Framework for DRR. Based on the reporting, the targets are monitored and are reflected in the website. As per 2019 report, some targets have been validated as well. History
11. Recommendation:

Component 2

Recommendation 11. In order to ensure sustainability of the project effects and to strengthen its institutional base, exit workshops should be conducted with relevant stakeholders for documenting and sharing project achievements, its institutional basis, and the works to be done at the local level as well. This could ensure asset management and ownership of resources.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

DHM/ CFGORRP has a clear exit strategy which has been endorsed by Project Executive Board. Sharing and lesson learn workshop was organized inviting all the relevant government institutions and other stakeholders. The knowledge products such as Best Practices, Lessons and Success Stories, Handbook on Imja Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Management, User Manual of Imja Hydro-Meteorological and Early Warning System, Project Completion Report,  Sediment Monitoring Protocol  for Churia Originating River Systems have been distributed in soft and hard copy for the participants with  very clear presentations.

The exit strategy has clearly mentioned the roles and responsibilities of the local government, community members including task forces, district level agencies and the federal level government to ensure ownership of resources and sustainability of the initiatives.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
11.1 Updating Exit Strategy and organizing Lesson Learned Workshop
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM and UNDP- CFGORRP 2018/12 Completed Done at national and local levels
11.2 Integrate / establish linkages of Community Based Tasks Forces with existing local government or community institutions of national park
[Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2021/01/07]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2020/12 Completed Overdue-Initiated Joint workshop has been organized with Khumbu Pasang Lhamu Rural Municipality and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in Godawari , Lalitpur Nepal in January 2020. The rural municipality has formed Local Disaster Risk Management Committee at municipality and ward levels, particularly ward no 4. The municipality has also allocated budget for CCA and DRR related activities in its’ annual plan. Completed History
11.3 Documentation of project knowledge products- video, images and other reports and uploading in the website.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation and UNDP 2019/03 Completed Knowledge products are available – both in hard copy and soft copy
12. Recommendation:

Component 2

Recommendation 12. Asset management and ownership of resources is important in this type of inter-agency programs. An inter-agency Letter of Agreement for resource handover and maintenance would ensure sustainability of the project.

Management Response: [Added: 2020/01/06] [Last Updated: 2020/11/12]

Relevant and Agreed

As per the decision of the Project Executive Board, all the project assets have been handed over to the Government of Nepal, more specifically to DHM and DSCWM.  The transfer of vehicles would take time as the Government has to clear the process including payment of applicable taxes. A handover event was also organized at the local level in which the handover of the assets and their responsibilities were clearly discussed.

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology will clear all applicable taxes.
[Added: 2020/01/06]
DHM/ Ministry of Energy Water Resources and Irrigation 2019/12 Completed 2 4WD vans and 4 Motorcycles are being handed over to DHM and 2 Motorcycles to Department of Forests and Soil Conservation ( DoFSC).

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