Mid-term evaluation of the Development Initiative in Northern Uganda (DINU) programme

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Evaluation Plan:
2018-2021, UNCDF
Evaluation Type:
Mid Term Project
Planned End Date:
06/2021
Completion Date:
07/2022
Status:
Completed
Management Response:
Yes
Evaluation Budget(US $):
94,850

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Title Mid-term evaluation of the Development Initiative in Northern Uganda (DINU) programme
Atlas Project Number:
Evaluation Plan: 2018-2021, UNCDF
Evaluation Type: Mid Term Project
Status: Completed
Completion Date: 07/2022
Planned End Date: 06/2021
Management Response: Yes
Corporate Outcome and Output (UNDP Strategic Plan 2018-2021)
Evaluation Budget(US $): 94,850
Source of Funding:
Evaluation Expenditure(US $): 94,850
Joint Programme: No
Joint Evaluation: No
Evaluation Team members:
Name Title Nationality
Phillip Bottern Team Leader
Mariangela Pensa MSME Expert
Raymond Mutyaba Team Leader UGANDA
Robert Kiiza Roads Expert UGANDA
Irene Among Agriculture and Gender
John Clifton Roads
GEF Evaluation: No
Key Stakeholders:
Countries: UGANDA
Lessons
1.

Lesson 1: It is possible to enhance access to finance through grants and TA and linkages with Financial Service Providers

SME access to finance can be enhanced through a holistic approach that combines business development support and adequate financial services. SMEs in emerging markets face several challenges and, among them, lack of skills and of access to financial services are among the most cited in studies and surveys. Providing services that cover both aspects improves the chances of SMEs success.

Lesson 2: An SME financing facility can contribute to improving access to finance if accompanied by adequate SME support

A scheme such as the START Facility can make a contribution to improve access to finance, if adequately combined with support services to SMEs over the long term. In addition, efforts should be made to partnering with to other financial institutions to complement the financing needs of targeted SMEs. For the START Facility the implementation period has been too short, and changes should be introduced to improve a second phase.

Lesson 3: A revolving emergency fund for SMEs can work

The emergency fund for SMEs under COVID-19 worked as funds were partially re-paid (46%). It gave time for the funded SMEs to consolidate during COVID-19 and survive.

Lesson 4: It is possible to change the culture for SMEs from receiving grants to concessional loans

During the first CfP, several SMEs expected that grants would be provided as this was the normal practice. However, for the second CfP the applications were better, and SMEs understood in general that the culture for grants was over and UDBL would provide loans.   

Lesson 5: Sustainability measures for road upgrading projects cannot be reached without a clear design for future funding for maintenance

The C2 included no clear funding arrangements for adequate road maintenance after the upgrading was completed or concrete measures in place, although the historical examples from similar projects in Uganda and other countries are plenty. The future condition of the upgraded roads is now uncertain and likely risks premature deterioration. Premature deterioration and loss of serviceability will be directly and incrementally detrimental to the clear benefits of socio-economic development attributable to better rural road condition. Activities towards the central actors’ responsibilities for such projects for future funding is needed and this will not be achieved without solid follow up from the programme.

Lesson 6: Contracts with road contractor should take into account their actual capacity constraints and be seen as a mean to enhance their capacity

Shortcomings of contractors was a significant factor contributing to rural road rehabilitation implementation delays. The contract periods would have been adequate for highly qualified and experienced contractors, but the contract periods were unrealistically short given the limited contractors’ capacities. Given the general capacity issues of such medium level contractors, some form of increased pre-qualification could have excluded some of the weaker contractors and thus could have improved implementation efficiency, but this would have denied these weaker contractors from gaining additional exposure and experience.

Lesson 7: Reconstruction of rural roads can be improved by proper testing of materials such as gravel, sand, stone aggregates, concrete and culvert pipes

During the road rehabilitation projects in the 5 districts, materials excavated from borrow pits (gravel, sand, fill materials, stone aggregates, culvert pipes, and concrete were tested before being applied for road surfacing, fill or drainage structures.  Compaction tests were also carried out to ascertain that compaction of the road pavement was adequate. This was done to ensure that only materials that complied with technical specifications from the Ministry of Works and Transport were used for the road works. The districts were encouraged to ensure that the tests were carried out and the regional laboratories of the Ministry in Gulu, Arua and Mbale were used for this.

Lesson 8: Drainage shall be completed before the road surface construction work is implemented 

The evaluation noted that drainage activities were scheduled late in the road upgrading work and drainage constructions (pipes, culverts) were not completed although the road surface works were almost finished. This, in some cases, led to deterioration of the executed works as a result of flooding and washing (erosion) of completed sections. This necessitates repeating work on already executed sections of the road thereby increasing the cost of road works.  It is, therefore, important that drainage activities are sequenced and executed early.

Lesson 9. The resistance to payment and collection of LGs revenues in Uganda is enormous   

The difficulties in increasing the payment of own source revenues (OSR) in Uganda is high. The political will is still lacking behind, and complex costly systems are created, which are not resulting in substantial additional collections. An important step has been taken towards registration of taxpayers in several of the DINU DLGs, but resistance and obstacles will remain, unless strong support is provided and local tax collection is enforced, as has been observed in some cities in Uganda that are now collecting property rates.

 


Findings
1.

Relevance: The DINU UNCDF programme is highly relevant and aligned with Government of Uganda priorities. The need for financing of SMEs, road upgrading, and better districts PFM and governance is evident, as expressed in the Government’s strategies (mainly the National Development Plan). The relevance of activities is confirmed by the beneficiaries (districts and communities) and Ministries involved in the implementation and design of the programme. Gender and youth are mainstreamed well into the programme formulation but an approach for specific actions for SME Finance for women-owned SMEs and marginalized groups is missing. Climate change is mainstreamed into the programme, namely through the establishment of specific conditions for accessibility to finance for SMEs and district investments. The programme is designed to target SDGs 1 and 2.

Coherence: DINU UNCDF has a high degree of coherence with its design fitting well into the broad DINU programme and other development initiatives in the region. It is also coherent with UN and UNDP programmes working within the One UN Approach. During implementation cooperation and synergies with other interventions within the overall DINU and other UN agencies could have been stronger, such as working with localization of SDGs with UNDP. Some synergies were found with other major interventions from other Development Partners such as the World Bank and USAID. UNCDF’s added- value is clear as demonstrated by the pipeline of SME proposals for financing and management of district investments. Other UNCDF initiatives and regional programmes are presented and promoted by UNCDF but not yet applied by the beneficiaries.

Efficiency:  Implementation started quickly for C3 (District PFM and Governance), while it took more time for C2 (Road Upgrading and Maintenance), with a long, but correct, procurement process. For C1 (SME Finance and Governance) the implementation was also slow as it took time to set up the START Facility and adjust procedures with UDBL for the approval of projects for financing.

The implementation across the programme was delayed by the various COVID-19 lockdowns:  Most importantly, follow-up training, monitoring of road upgrading and handling of application for finance for SMEs and the LGEF could not be fully conducted. The programme has been quick and efficient in reallocating some budgets such as additional needs for road upgrading. Programme governance is good, with an active DINU Board, which focuses, however, more on operative rather than strategic decision-making.

The UNCDF DINU monitoring system is working well with relevant and measurable indicators, but monitoring suffers from the lack of a yearly updates of the overall DINU indicators from the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM).

Effectiveness: Outputs for C1 (SME Finance) and C3 (District PFM and Governance) are emerging or re-emerging after the COVID-19 lockdowns. For C2 (Road Upgrading) the roads are almost completed. In general, capacities are higher in the district administrations, SMEs and the partner organisations. With 13 SMEs financed and 14 almost approved for finance, and a well-functioning START Facility, it can be expected that C1 will contribute to increased finance for SMEs. For C2, the upgraded roads cover 14% of the estimated total district and community access road network, so the stock of quality roads is increasing in the 5 districts, with a solid contribution from the programme. For C3, the potential exists for the creation of increased local fiscal space, and the Local Government Excellence Fund is contributing to some improved local service delivery and local economic development.

Some capacity for gender equality and inclusiveness has been created in the Programme and women amount to about 40 % of beneficiaries, but only a few women-owned SMEs are included for financing. Likewise, people who cannot use English do not have full access to the START Facility.

Impact: It is still early to judge the likelihood of a broader level impact of UNCDF DINU as the targeted organisations have not yet begun fully operating with their new capacities. It seems, however, that potential exists for the emerging results under the DINU UNCDF outcomes to contribute to the overall DINU objectives. The SME proposals in the pipeline for financing have the potential to improve the economic fabric and increase, in particular, food security, if more financial institutions are willing to provide SME financing for the pipeline; the START Facility continues and the upgraded roads are maintained in good shape for transportation. The upgrading of roads, and also the establishment of some markets financed by the Programme, have also led to some trade beginning to emerge, including with neighbour countries.

The support provided to increase participation, better accountability, service delivery and better governance in the 18 core districts may provide a contribution to gender-responsive good governance, rule of law and empowered communities to participate in improved local service delivery, but it depends highly on follow up activities by the implementing Government Institutions.

Sustainability: DINU UNCDF has in-built sustainability with the support provided to national partners who are implementing the programme’s activities as a part of their mandates and normal roles. Their mandated activities are most likely to continue without DINU UNCDF support, although likely at a lower intensity. The Private Sector Foundation of Uganda and the UDBL are also well established and will likely continue their work.


Recommendations
1

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 1:

Selected activities within DINU UNCDF should be extended, this could be done within the existing budget
 

Rationale: The programme results are only partially completed, as only some outputs have been reached fully or partially. C2 for road upgrading (Output 2.1) is almost completed, while DLGs’ capacity for maintenance is an unsolved issue (Output 2.2). Under C1, only 8 SME proposals have been financed and the 7 outputs under C3 have not been fully finalized yet.   

Implementation partners: DINU UNCDF PIU, EU Delegation and the Government partners 

2

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 3:

In alignment with UNCDF SF 2022 to 2025, consider approving a second phase of the START Facility that would fully integrate UNCDF investment continuum concept which could enhance the holistic approach conceived within START I.

 

Rationale: SME access to finance should be viewed as a process that requires long term planning involving a broad range of stakeholders. In its new Strategic Framework 2022-2025, UNCDF plan to provide more blended finance along the investment continuum from start-up to maturity:
 

Implementation partners: UNCDF and potentially EU

3

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 4:

Establishing a stronger link between the support to LG Finance and LED on one side and SME Finance on the other.


Rationale: The LGEF investments could benefit from a better commercial content in the form of a business development plan with budgets, revenue streams, expenditures, maintenance plan etc. Similarly, the Commercial Officers in the districts are not always well informed about the START Facility and other support mechanism to SMEs.

4

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 5:

The future design of support actions directed at LGs should have a narrower focus and concentrate on fewer actions that contribute to the objectives of the relevant programme and are within the capacities of the beneficiary LGs.

 

Rational: The current programme is very ambitious, in particular under C3 (which includes over 100 actions), with many stakeholders, partners and ambitious targets. Also, there is certain imbalance between the high expectations in the Project Document for GE, HR and climate change issues and the DLGs and SMEs, which are more focused on investments for immediate benefit such as markets, cooperatives, job creation for farmers and production in the agricultural sector. 

Implementation: UNCDF

5

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 6: Scaling up a START Facility to the national level should include a clear focus rather than very ambitious objectives.

Rationale: Considering the findings of this evaluation and UNCDF’s capacity in Uganda, a nationwide facility should be designed with realistic targets and objectives.

 

Implementation: UNCDF with EU and, eventually, other partners

6

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 7:

In future programming, Gender equality and Human Rights mainstreaming should lead to actions that complement the existing structures and with a more complete approach to the empowerment of women.  

 

Rationale: The design of the DINU UNCDF was only partially informed by thorough gender and HR assessments. The programme has worked within the existing structures in a mainstreaming approach with many good results, but it could also have created spaces for the empowerment of women and marginalised groups such as non-English literates in Karamoja. Under C1, while it is easier to provide jobs for women in the markets and the fields, actions are needed so more women-owned SMEs apply for grants and loans. The question remains if this empowerment implies there will be new men-women domestic roles, or it just adds extra workload for women. This is particularly relevant for the new SF 2022-2025 of UNCDF:

 

Implementation: UNCDF in cooperation with the UN Family, other DPs and GoU

Management Response Documents
1. Recommendation:

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 1:

Selected activities within DINU UNCDF should be extended, this could be done within the existing budget
 

Rationale: The programme results are only partially completed, as only some outputs have been reached fully or partially. C2 for road upgrading (Output 2.1) is almost completed, while DLGs’ capacity for maintenance is an unsolved issue (Output 2.2). Under C1, only 8 SME proposals have been financed and the 7 outputs under C3 have not been fully finalized yet.   

Implementation partners: DINU UNCDF PIU, EU Delegation and the Government partners 

Management Response: [Added: 2022/08/25]

No comment

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
1. Conduct an analysis of the challenges that remote LLGs face when using IRAS, including (e.g.) obstacles caused by non-accessibility to internet and data and the lack of-availability of smart phones for the collectors.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team, LGFC, LGs 2022/12 Initiated LGFC team working on concept note for the assessment of issues to include contribution OSR to District Plans. Procurement of solar systems to power IRAS in rural locations ongoing.
2. Support DLGs in setting up the Complaint Tribunal for property valuation, starting in Omoro DLG as a pilot phase, and spread gradually to other relevant DLGs with (emerging) property registers
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team, LGFC, LGs 2022/12 Initiated In process of procurement consultants to support digital property valuation, automating the registers and complaints tribunal initially planned for Omoro, Yumbe and Zombo and later scaled up to all the other 15 LGs
3. Support the development of DLGs’ Revenue Collection Strategies that focus on some high yielding revenue sources instead of spreading out to a big amount of low yielding sources. The collection of property tax is key.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team, LGFC, LGs 2022/12 Initiated The LREG strategies focus on 5 major revenue sources and we project currently focusing efforts on automating property valuation and support value properties in all the 18 LGs
5. Follow up closely with the DLGs to ensure the functioning of the revenue databases
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team, LGFC, LGs 2022/12 Initiated No comments
4. Let the certified TADAT DGL and government officials train the revenue collectors applying simplified modules from the main TADAT suitable for local revenue collectors.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team, LGFC, LGs 2022/12 Not Initiated ToR’s being developed for TADAT trainers and URA to initially support 2 LG and Cites in Northern Uganda improve revenue performance based TADAT findings.
2. Recommendation:

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 3:

In alignment with UNCDF SF 2022 to 2025, consider approving a second phase of the START Facility that would fully integrate UNCDF investment continuum concept which could enhance the holistic approach conceived within START I.

 

Rationale: SME access to finance should be viewed as a process that requires long term planning involving a broad range of stakeholders. In its new Strategic Framework 2022-2025, UNCDF plan to provide more blended finance along the investment continuum from start-up to maturity:
 

Implementation partners: UNCDF and potentially EU

Management Response: [Added: 2022/08/25]

No comment

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
1. Disbursement of grants and concessional loans or guarantees to start-up or early-stage SMEs on UNCDF balance sheet.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team, 2022/12 Initiated On-balance sheet loans will be explored during implementation of phase II. Currently the loans are through UDB
2. Partnering will local financial institutions, banks and Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), alongside UDBL to finance start-up and early-stage SMEs above the financial capacity of UNCDF. This should take into account the challenge that private sector Financial Service Providers (FSPs) will most likely not accept to provide services at concessional terms.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Initiated Discussions are ongoing to bring on board FIs & NBFIs to be part of START phase II
4. Along the same line, enhance partnerships with international players including within the private sector, I.e., impact investment managers, that may find added value in a collaboration with an institution that can build a sustainable pipeline of (almost) bankable projects.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Initiated Currently in discussions with partners including PCP, ACELI Africa, Acumen, aBi Trust etc
5. Provide continued pre- and post-disbursement services to SMEs.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Initiated This is already being done and will be scaled up in the 2nd phase of START
3. Exploit linkage with the BUILD Fund to accompany SMEs throughout growth process until they are able to access more commercial sources of finance.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Not Initiated SMEs that graduate under START facility will be referred to Build fund
3. Recommendation:

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 4:

Establishing a stronger link between the support to LG Finance and LED on one side and SME Finance on the other.


Rationale: The LGEF investments could benefit from a better commercial content in the form of a business development plan with budgets, revenue streams, expenditures, maintenance plan etc. Similarly, the Commercial Officers in the districts are not always well informed about the START Facility and other support mechanism to SMEs.

Management Response: [Added: 2022/08/25]

No Comment

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
2. A better promotion of the START Facility is carried out by the District Commercial Officers in cooperation with the START Facility.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team , PSFU 2022/12 Initiated UNCDF & PSFU will work more closely with District Commercial Officers not just in promotion but also supporting SMEs to prepare better proposals
3. Implementation of joint activities by the private and public sector to promote LED.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Initiated Intensify collaboration between private & public sector during START phase II
1. Experiences from the business approaches under the START Facility are shared with the Commercial Officers in the DLGs to improve better planning of investment under the LGEF in terms of the developing of commercial aspects including the standard format for LGEF proposal.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Completed Investment team have worked with DLGs to design LGEF projects and will continue
4. Recommendation:

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 5:

The future design of support actions directed at LGs should have a narrower focus and concentrate on fewer actions that contribute to the objectives of the relevant programme and are within the capacities of the beneficiary LGs.

 

Rational: The current programme is very ambitious, in particular under C3 (which includes over 100 actions), with many stakeholders, partners and ambitious targets. Also, there is certain imbalance between the high expectations in the Project Document for GE, HR and climate change issues and the DLGs and SMEs, which are more focused on investments for immediate benefit such as markets, cooperatives, job creation for farmers and production in the agricultural sector. 

Implementation: UNCDF

Management Response: [Added: 2022/08/25]

No comment

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
1. Undertake a more detailed assessment of the capacities of LGs for absorption of programme activities
[Added: 2022/08/25]
UNCDF, MOLG, LG Development Partners group ( LoDPG) 2024/12 Initiated
2. Design activities more realistically in terms of the options and context such as availability of LG officials
[Added: 2022/08/25]
UNCDF, MOLG and LoDPG 2024/12 Initiated At LoDPG, one of the key advocacy activities partner under the co-chair ship of UNCDF and Belgium, is capacity of LGs Vs the decentralized functions.
3. “Basics First”: Start with the basic reforms and build up and focus on key activities of the LGs
[Added: 2022/08/25]
UNCDF, MOLG and LoDPG 2024/12 Initiated At LoDPG, one of the key advocacy activities partner under the co-chair ship of UNCDF and Belgium, is capacity of LGs Vs the decentralized functions.
4. Consider constraints on ICT in particular in remote and rural areas
[Added: 2022/08/25]
UNCDF, MOLG and LoDPG 2024/12 Initiated Under the current DINU besides the automation and ICT support already delivered, not much can be undertaken given the approaching project closure date. However future efforts will integrate ICT capacity. Which conversation we will take to LoDPG, besides its inclusion on proposed urban and LG program
5. Recommendation:

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 6: Scaling up a START Facility to the national level should include a clear focus rather than very ambitious objectives.

Rationale: Considering the findings of this evaluation and UNCDF’s capacity in Uganda, a nationwide facility should be designed with realistic targets and objectives.

 

Implementation: UNCDF with EU and, eventually, other partners

Management Response: [Added: 2022/08/25]

No comments

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
1. Sector: A nationwide facility should maintain a narrow sector focus, rather than opening up to all sectors, considering the priorities of the GoU but also the expertise developed at UNCDF in Uganda, i.e., agriculture value addition should remain a priority considering that during the implementation of the START Facility the team has built knowledge in the segment.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Initiated The draft proposal submitted to EU has continued to prioritize agriculture value addition while scaling up across the country
2. Population segments: If women and youth are included as priorities, the facility should be specifically designed to target those segments. The design of future programs should acknowledge limitations at the outset rather than setting over-ambitious goals or, ideally, develop specific programs that address women-owned SMEs and/or marginalized groups’ access to finance, with the necessary attention to the idiosyncrasies of the segments.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Initiated The current proposal for phase II aims to streamline gender and youth
3. Environment: As mentioned for the targeted population segment, climate change-related objectives should also be more effectively incorporated into the facility, with specific targets and focus on use of green technology (i.e., solar energy, energy saving equipment),. as well as sustainable agriculture practice (i.e., organic farming. regenerative agriculture).
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2022/12 Initiated The proposal for phase II will incorporate the recommendation
4. Coordinating the specific approach of the START facility with a more comprehensive intervention by the EU as per the Multi Annual Indicative Programme for Uganda, 2021-2027 under Priority area 2: Promoting sustainable and inclusive growth and jobs.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU Team 2023/12 Initiated Working closely with EU team to ensure the phase II proposal is in line with the Multi Annual Indicative Programme for Uganda, 2021-2027.
6. Recommendation:

Evaluation Recommendation or Issue 7:

In future programming, Gender equality and Human Rights mainstreaming should lead to actions that complement the existing structures and with a more complete approach to the empowerment of women.  

 

Rationale: The design of the DINU UNCDF was only partially informed by thorough gender and HR assessments. The programme has worked within the existing structures in a mainstreaming approach with many good results, but it could also have created spaces for the empowerment of women and marginalised groups such as non-English literates in Karamoja. Under C1, while it is easier to provide jobs for women in the markets and the fields, actions are needed so more women-owned SMEs apply for grants and loans. The question remains if this empowerment implies there will be new men-women domestic roles, or it just adds extra workload for women. This is particularly relevant for the new SF 2022-2025 of UNCDF:

 

Implementation: UNCDF in cooperation with the UN Family, other DPs and GoU

Management Response: [Added: 2022/08/25]

No comment

Key Actions:

Key Action Responsible DueDate Status Comments Documents
1. The log-frame of a future intervention should include baseline information as well as qualitative and quantitative targets for the expected impact on women-owned SMEs,
[Added: 2022/08/25]
UNCDF LTF Team 2024/12 Initiated To be incorporated in design of START phase II and other successor programs being designed and negotiated with EU and other partners
2. Conduct solid gender equality analyses during the design phase of future projects so as to feed it into the intervention logic of the project.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
UNCDF LTF team 2024/12 Initiated Gender equality analysis will be undertaken as part of scoping and design of future projects and baselines undertake to further inform the project intervention logic
3. Include a comprehensive gender analysis of the existing constraints to women’s participation in enterprises (including cultural and structural barriers).
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team 2022/12 Initiated The implementation of START has generated a lot of date on gender constraints which will be incorporated in phase II design
4. Set-up interventions that include collaboration and partnership with other stakeholders that address these underlying barriers.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team 2022/12 Initiated To be incorporated in design of START phase II
5. Set realistic goals in line with existing social and legal constraints.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team 2022/12 Initiated To be incorporated in design of START phase II
6. Plan and monitor to ensure that interventions “do-no-harm.” For instance, well-intended enterprises could end in exacerbating women’s workloads and escalating gender-based violence.
[Added: 2022/08/25]
DINU team 2022/12 Initiated To be incorporated in design of START phase II

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